Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus65 kabq 200540 aab 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1040 PM MST Tue Nov 19 2019

06z taf cycle
abundant clouds will continue to thicken and lower overnight. Rain
and High Mountain snow will spread rapidly northeast into Wednesday.
Mtn obscurations will occur, and IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys likely in the
heavier precipitation. A stray thunderstorm or two is also possible,
though confidence is too low to insert into the tafs attm. Winds
gusts of 30kt to 35kt will impact the eastern taf sites. Another
round of rain and snow is expected for later Wednesday night into
Thursday night.


Previous discussion...347 PM MST Tue Nov 19 2019...
a very favorable pattern for widespread and persistent precipitation
is setting-up across northern and central New Mexico tonight through
Thursday night. This is a result of two storm systems tracking across
the region. The first system will be the warmer of the two, with snow
mainly relegated to the higher terrain of the northern mountains. The
second system will be notably colder, bringing snow levels to around
6,500 feet starting Wednesday night. This could bring higher chances
for travel impacts along the Continental Divide. In addition, a weak
backdoor front will slide into the northeast and east Central Plains.
This will be another area of concern for travel impacts on Thursday.
Quieter weather is expected on Friday, but high temperatures will be
well below normal. Additional storm systems may impact the state for
Monday into Tuesday and again on Thanksgiving day, but there is quite
a bit of uncertainty regarding their potential impacts to travel.


overall, no major changes to the ongoing forecast other than to fine
tune precipitation chances, particularly the departure of activity in
the eastern plains Wednesday afternoon, then the timing of the Pacific
front late Wednesday night into Thursday. Opted to convert the Winter
Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory for the long-duration (60-hr)
event for the higher terrain. While warning level snowfall may be hit,
the long duration may limit the degree of impacts. In addition, expect
headlines will be needed for portions of west central nm and possibly
the northeast plains as well. Confidence was not high enough to pull
the trigger on these zones, but will Post a Special Weather Statement
(sps) to raise awareness.

A rapidly weakening upper low will continue to accelerate northeast
into Baja California and will race across southern and eastern nm on
Wednesday. Divergence aloft coupled with rather high precipitable water values for
this time of year is bringing decent precipitation to portions of Arizona.
In fact, there is sufficient instability to support lightning. This
slug of moisture and instability will migrate east-northeast tonight,
although it should be more diffuse compared to the activity in Arizona. As
this system passes, expect snow levels to hover around 9,000-9,500',
limiting accumulations to the higher terrain of northern nm. Current
indications suggest 2 to 5 inches are possible. There will likely be
a brief break in the action Wednesday evening, before the next upper
low originating from the pacnw ejects northeast from Southern California. The
best forcing compliments of broad upper level divergence coupled with
a surface cold front will spread eastward into western nm Wed night.
A much colder air mass will be associated with this system with 700mb
temps dropping to -2c to -5c. This will allow snow levels to crater
to around 6,500' on Thursday. The timing of this activity could have
an impact on the morning commute in western nm. Meanwhile, a backdoor
front will ooze into northeast nm early on Thursday. The ingredients
appear favorable for cooler air, upslope flow and upper level support
to generate some light snow in northeast nm. Current indications have
near or sub-advisory accumulations, but travel impacts can be concern
during the evening commute in this area.

Activity starts to wind down Thursday night with some convectively-
induced snow showers possible over the northern mountains as the cold
core remains over New Mexico. Some modest warming is expected for the
upcoming weekend as nm remains beneath northwest or zonal flow. Mon-
Tue could be an interesting period across nm as the gefs mean 500-hpa
height anomalies are projected to be ~two Standard deviations below
average. It is rather tempting to compare the GFS/European model (ecmwf) deterministic
solutions at this stage, but both offer different degrees of impacts.
Will need to wait it a bit longer to see what is in store. Dporter


Fire weather...
a one-two precipitation punch is expected tonight through Thursday
as two storm systems cross the state. The first round of
precipitation will arrive tonight and persist through Wednesday
morning. Snow levels will generally be around 9500 feet. Southwest
winds will pick up Wednesday afternoon with gusts near 35 mph
possible, especially east of the Central Mountain chain. Though
precipitation won't completely diminish Wednesday afternoon, the
next significant round of precipitation will cross the state from
west to east Wednesday night through Thursday. Temperatures will cool
with the second round, and snow levels will lower to around 7500
feet. The heaviest snow through the 60-hour or so period is expected
over the northern mountains where some high elevation locales could
see over a foot of the white stuff. Precipitation will largely
diminish late Thursday night, though a few light showers may persist
into Friday.

Drier conditions are expected for the weekend, then another storm
system is expected to bring more widespread rain and snow Monday and

Poor ventilation is expected Thursday, with slight improvement on
Friday. Widespread poor vent rates are expected for the weekend. 34


18z taf cycle



Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 am Wednesday to midnight MST
Thursday night for the following zones... nmz210-211-213-214.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations