Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus65 kabq 201750 aab 
afdabq

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1050 am MST Wed Nov 20 2019

Aviation...
18z taf cycle
widespread precipitation is starting to depart the eastern plains
and should clear the state line by 19z. Instability-related showers
are possible over northern and central nm through 00z/Thu, with the
best chances across the northern mountains. This will also cause Mt
top obscurations. The next storm system will start to invade wrn nm
around 06z, then gradually migrate east throughout Thursday. Opted
to used the latest href for timing and ptype. IFR conditions can be
expected with the band of snow, especially at kgup and potentially
at klvs on Thursday afternoon. Dporter

&&

Previous discussion...336 am MST Wed Nov 20 2019...
synopsis...
a couple of wet storm systems will continue to cross northern and
central New Mexico through Thursday night. The snow level will
remain above 8500 feet today, but it will drop near 6500 feet tonight
and even lower Thursday night. An impressive wave of precipitation
is forecast to cross the state from the west late tonight through
Thursday. Cold air will linger through Friday as drier air arrives.
After a warmer weekend, a cold and windy upper level trough will
bring another chance for wintery precipitation early in the coming
work week.

&&

Discussion...
a couple of storm systems will cross the state today through Thursday
night. Additional rain or liquid equivalent precipitation amounts
should vary around 0.25-1.00 inch across the forecast area with
locally higher amounts in the mountains. The snow level will drop
around 8500-9500 feet today with a few to 6 inches of snow in the
northern mountains as low as 8500 feet. Tonight, the snow level will
drop to around 5000 feet (northeast), 6500 feet (west), and 7500 ft
(south central). A back door cold front will sag into northeast and
east central areas tonight and Thursday, then a Pacific cold front
will track eastward across the state Thursday and Thursday night,
helping to lower those snow levels. Periods for the most widespread
precipitation will include today as a moisture logged upper level
trough passes northeastward across central and eastern areas from the
Baja Peninsula, and also late tonight through Thursday as a band of
precipitation passes eastward across the state just ahead of the
Pacific cold front. This means most of the moisture will shift east
of nm before the coldest air arrives, which will generally limit
snow accumulations to a few inches at the lower elevations of the
northeast and along the Continental Divide. However, the mountains
should pile up several inches, with over 1 foot expected at the
highest elevations.

With this forecast package we will add a Winter Weather Advisory to
the west central and Southwest Mountains for tonight through Thursday
to the ongoing advisories for the northern mountains. The day shift
will likely expand coverage of advisories to more of northern and
western nm, since snow will begin to accumulate across lower
elevations of the west and north tonight, and especially Thursday.
The Sangre de Cristo Mountains may need to be upgraded by later
shifts to a Winter Storm Warning, since they may accumulate around
10 inches of snow Thursday and Thursday night.

Drier weather will move in Friday, but it will still be quite cold
with high temperatures around 8 to 15 degrees below normal.
Temperatures will rebound this weekend, only to cool again early
next week as a cold and windy upper level trough crosses from the
northwest with a chance for wintery precipitation. 44

&&

Fire weather...
widespread rain and mountain snow will shift across the area today
and Thursday. Snow levels near 9,000' today will fall to near 7,000'
Thursday afternoon as colder air arrives from the west. Everyone is
expected to receive wetting rainfall with average totals in the 0.50-
1.0" range. The heavier snowfall will focus above 8,500' with 5-10"
likely. A couple west facing peaks in northern nm may see as much as
15" by Friday morning.

Very dry air will move into the region in the wake of this system
for Friday and the weekend. Vent rates will be mainly poor for most
areas with below normal temperatures. West to southwest winds will
increase Monday ahead of the next winter storm system for Tuesday.
Even colder air is expected with this system along with more snow
possible for the northern high terrain.

Guyer

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST Thursday night for the
following zones... nmz210-211-213-214.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM MST Thursday
for the following zones... nmz206-208.

&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations