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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
525 PM MDT sun Oct 20 2019

Aviation...
00z taf cycle
windy/gusty conditions will persist into the early evening hours,
then gradually diminish through midnight. Expect more west-
northwest winds Monday, but nowhere near as windy as today.
Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail and will persist through the taf
period.

11

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Previous discussion...251 PM MDT sun Oct 20 2019...
synopsis...
very strong winds that have been ongoing this Sunday afternoon will
diminish once the sun sets aside from some lingering breezes in the
east before midnight. Another round of freezing temperatures is
expected across northern and western New Mexico tonight. Portions of
the Albuquerque Metro area that have not seen their first fall freeze
could see localized areas of freezing temperatures tonight. In the
wake of the cold front, temperatures will continue to be well below
normal on Monday with breezy winds again expected. The strongest
winds will be felt along and near the Central Mountain chain,
particularly near Clines Corners. Temperatures warm through Wednesday
before the next system arrives late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Another cold front will move through the state Wednesday night, again
dropping temperatures to well below normal readings. A lot of
uncertainty exists in the forecast late in the week, but depending on
the track of the system, it could bring chances for rain and even
snow to the east.

&&

Discussion...
windy conditions are currently ongoing across the area with the
highest winds being observed along and east of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains where the cold front is currently moving through. Winds
will quickly diminish after sunset in the west, but breezy winds
could continue in the east for a few hours after the sun sets.
Another round of freezing temperatures is expected primarily across
northern and western nm. The majority of the abq Metro area will also
likely freeze although the sunport will be flirting with the freezing
mark with a low of 33f currently forecast.

In the wake of the cold front, temperatures will be well below normal
on Monday but will warm through Wednesday. Dry, northwest flow will
set up over the state on Monday, but with the upper-level jet
lingering, winds will continue to be breezy to windy across the
state on Monday. The strongest wind speeds will be felt along and
east of the Central Mountain chain where Wind Advisory speeds will
once again be possible, particularly along the I-40 corridor near
cqc. The next storm system to impact the area looks to occur late
Wednesday and into Thursday, but still a lot of uncertainty regarding
it. The GFS keeps the system as a weak upper-level wave that moves
through the Central Plains. However, the European model (ecmwf) and the Canadian
develop the system into a closed low that dives south into eastern
nm. As such, these two models are more enthusiastic with
precipitation late week across the east. Regardless of where it
tracks, a strong backdoor cold front looks to make its way through
the eastern plains Wednesday night, causing temperatures to drop
below normal once again. Did lower pops below nbm guidance in the
extended, but kept slight chances due to uncertainty. If
precipitation does occur, with temperatures this cold, there could be
chances for snow across the east late in the week.

15

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Fire weather...
an upper level trough deepening as it crosses the central rockies
will continue to steer the jetstream over nm for the remainder of
today and Monday. A tight surface pressure gradient will also
exist. These features will continue to produce wind gusts from 40 to
60 mph from the Central Mountain chain eastward until sunset this
evening. Surface winds at lower elevations will decouple from the
stronger flow aloft after sunset this evening, but northwest surface
winds will strengthen again Monday with gusts from 30 to 50 mph
across the forecast area. With widespread humidities below 15
percent both days, many areas will have critical fire weather
conditions during the afternoon and early evening both today and
Monday. The most critical conditions will occur this afternoon since
winds will be stronger and Haines indices will be in the 5 to 6
range across the northeast. Haines will moderate on Monday, and high
temperatures will vary around 3 to 12 degrees below normal, so we do
not plan additional fire weather headlines.

Dry and weaker northwest flow aloft will then linger over the state
Tuesday through mid week with gradually warming temperatures. GFS
and European model (ecmwf) agree on an upper level trough bringing a strong cold
front and a chance for rain and snow mainly to the Central Mountain
chain eastward Wednesday night through Thursday night. The back door
front will bring breezy conditions to the eastern plains Wednesday
night and Thursday. There may be a few inches of light snow
accumulation in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and also eastward
along the Colorado/nm border.

44

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... nmz103-104-107-108.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
nmz510-512>516-518-519-521-522-527>529-531-535>537.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... nmz523-532>534.

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