Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1125 am MDT Mon Oct 14 2019
18z taf cycle
VFR will prevail as westerly to southwesterly breezes kick in this
afternoon. An increase in cloud cover is edging into southern nm with
some bkn skies possible from konm to ksrr to krow. An approaching
disturbance from the west could even tap into this moisture to
produce a few isold -shra/ts over southern nm with brief gusty winds
more likely at or near the aforementioned terminals. Winds calm
again overnight with a backdoor front bringing a north/NE wind shift into
northeastern nm toward the end of the taf period.
Previous discussion...757 am MDT Mon Oct 14 2019...
minor update to introduce isold showers/storms with patchy drizzle
over portions of Socorro and western Lincoln County this afternoon.
Hi-res models are latching onto an approaching disturbance from the
west taking advantage of moisture being drawn up from northern Mexico
to produce some afternoon convection. Overall, not a big change to
today's forecast with the most notable feature likely being erratic
gusts over Socorro County from light showers or virga.
Previous discussion...210 am MDT Mon Oct 14 2019...
the dry, warming trend continues for most except for a brief cool
down across northeast and east central New Mexico Tuesday behind a
backdoor cold front. Another weak system will cross the central
rockies Friday, but conditions should remain mostly dry. Temperatures
will cool though across the north Friday and Saturday while winds
become breezy. Another storm system will cross The Rockies late next
weekend, but confidence is low in whether or not the area will see
any precipitation from it. However, confidence is higher that the
system will bring much cooler temperatures and windy conditions
Sunday and Monday.
a shortwave trough will begin to approach the state from the west
today, slowly crossing nm through the first part of the week. As
flow turns southwesterly ahead of this feature, it will draw moisture
northward into southern nm. With weak overall flow, the moisture
won't seep too much into our County Warning Area before it's shunted eastward as the
shortwave crosses on Tuesday. Biggest impacts will be increased
cloud cover over southeastern and south central nm and perhaps an
isolated storm near the Dunken area Monday or Tuesday. The dry, warming
trend continues for most except in the east where a backdoor cold
front will move south and west on Tuesday, cooling temperatures about
5 and 15 degrees.
A weak ridge will build upstream of the trough by Wednesday which
will help move the trough out of our area. However, models differ on
where the trough GOES and how long it takes to get there. The European model (ecmwf)
and nam12 shunt the system to the south while the GFS moves it east
over Texas. Regardless, the moisture will remain well to our south, and
dry, warm conditions will prevail Wednesday and Thursday with some
afternoon breezes across the east.
Another trough will cross the central rockies on Friday. This system
will stay too far north to allow for any precipitation impacts in our
area, but it will bring cooler temperatures and breezy winds to
northern nm Friday and Saturday.
Confidence is still low in what could potentially be next weekend's
storm system. Models currently indicate a very cold, 547 dm upper-
level low crossing the central rockies Sunday and Monday that could
bring another round of snow across portions of the Rocky Mountains.
Uncertainty remains in whether or not northern nm could see any
precipitation from this system, but overall, models have been
trending drier and keeping the main precipitation impacts across Colorado
and Wyoming. Confidence is increasing though that the system will cause
another cool down across the state Sunday and Monday as well as
create breezy to windy conditions on Sunday.
some moisture may be advected into southern New Mexico from the
south ahead of a disturbance later today and tonight, which could
produce a few virga or light showers mainly over Socorro and
southern Torrance counties late this afternoon and into Tuesday
before the moisture is shunted back to our south. Localized critical
fire weather conditions remain forecast this afternoon over San
Temperatures will be near to above normal through Friday. A dry cold
front will impact the eastern plains Tuesday, cooling high
temperatures about 5 to 15 degrees, but not enough to deviate very
far from normal. The front could reach the east slopes of the
Central Mountain chain late Tuesday, and result in a weak easterly
wind into the rgv Tuesday night. Fair to poor overnight humidity
recoveries forecast over the west and north tonight through
The region will be under a short lived ridge Wednesday with light
winds aloft, however the eastern plains could be breezy due to a Lee
surface trough. Winds will likely increase Thursday, as another
disturbance passes over northern New Mexico, but forecast models
have trended drier with this feature. Friday could be relatively
windy, followed by plenty of forecast uncertainty for the upcoming
weekend. At this time, model trends point toward a mostly dry but
windy and cooler period under northwest flow, although a few rain
and snow showers could impact the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and far
Ventilation will be generally good to excellent today and Friday
with fair to poor rates dominating Tuesday through Thursday.