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fxus63 kabr 150550 aaa 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
1150 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

issued at 1150 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

06z aviation discussion updated below.

Update issued at 922 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Low clouds to the north were developing/moving ever so slowly to
the south and expect the speed/development to increase with
nighttime cooling and southward progression of a surface cold
front. Also, expect some fog to develop later tonight in the cwa.
Updated forecast.

Update issued at 550 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

00z aviation discussion updated below.


Short term...(this evening through Friday afternoon)
issued at 303 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

A warm front a pushed across the region this afternoon with
temperatures reaching the mid 40s, in western Minnesota, to the low
50s from the James River west. A surface cold front currently over
northern ND will slide southeastward tonight, bringing low clouds
into the County Warning Area. Based on buffer soundings, patchy freezing drizzle
will be possible over the far northeast portion of the County Warning Area. With the
depth of the low level saturation generally under 1 km, the
patchy freezing drizzle should not be much of an issue. Patchy to
areas of fog will be possible across most of the County Warning Area tonight into
Friday. Dense fog will be possible as well. Temperatures on Friday
will be problematic due to cloudy skies. NAM guidance suggests
cloudy skies remaining over a good portion of the area through
Friday with highs mostly in the low 30s. Other models indicate
partial clearing, which allows temps to warm into the 40s. Did
trim temps back a couple degrees, mainly in the northeastern County Warning Area.
Cloudy skies will likely continue on Friday night, which combined
with increasing southerly winds should produce lows in the upper
20s, to the low 30s.

Long term...(friday evening through thursday)
issued at 303 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

The extended period opens with an upper trough moving in and a weak
sfc front. Light precipitation is expected with this system. Weak
systems will be the pattern through the middle of next week with one
slated for Sunday night/early Monday and another for
Tuesday/Wednesday. Daytime highs under northwest flow Sunday and
Monday or a building ridge by Tuesday will be at or above average.
These temps will be sufficient to support rain during the day with
snow or a mix at night. No significant accumulations are expected at
this time.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1150 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

With light winds tonight along with mostly clear skies and small dew
point depressions, expect some IFR/MVFR fog to form. Some possible
stratus clouds could form at abr and aty. Otherwise, everything will
become VFR on Friday for all locations with mid and high level
clouds streaming over.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


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