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fxus63 kabr 170815 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
315 am CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Short term...(today through Friday afternoon)
issued at 315 am CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The area currently resides under mostly clear skies, with
temperatures hovering around the freezing mark. Despite the chilly
start, upper-level ridging sets the stage for ~5 to 10 degrees above
average high temperatures today. 1-2 Standard deviation above normal
850/925mb temperatures will be building in from the west, and
limited cloud cover (cirrus will gradually increase in thickness
through the day) will help warming.

By tonight, a trough of low pressure and surface cold front will
advance into the Dakotas. Southeasterly winds will increase in
response, and should stay elevated through much of the day Friday.
This system will have limited moisture however, so while there will
be increased cloudiness, precipitation is not anticipated. If some
did develop, it would be very light in the form of rain during the
afternoon. With the west-to-east frontal passage Friday morning
through early evening, winds will shift from the southeast to the
northwest. Prior to the frontal passage, another mild day is in
store with highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s.

Long term...(friday evening through wednesday)
issued at 315 am CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Weak high pressure will be the dominant feature over the area Friday
night through the day Saturday. A low pressure system and associated
frontal boundary will then approach from the west. The deterministic
models continue to come into better agreement with the timing and
track of this system, with the low center forecast to track across
the County Warning Area Sunday afternoon and night before sliding northeast of the
region on Monday. This system will bring widespread precipitation to
the area Sunday into the day Monday. Conditions look to be warm
enough much of that time for the precipitation to be rain, but
cannot rule out some light snow mixing in on the backside Sunday
night and again Monday evening, if the precipitation lingers that
long. Tuesday looks to be dry with high pressure moving in behind
the exiting system, then the models diverge significantly at the
very end of the period with another potential precipitation making
system toward the middle of next week.

Saturday will be the warmest day of the period with highs in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s will be common
through the remainder of the period. Overnight lows will be mainly
in the 30s.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1224 am CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Thursday.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


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