Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kabr 141733 aac 
afdabr

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
1133 am CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Update...
issued at 1036 am CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Added low pops to the far western County Warning Area to add flurry and light snow
mentions for the next couple hours. Also adjusted sky cover over
the next few hours to better reflect satellite trends.

&&

Discussion...
issued at 230 am CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Overall the forecast looks relatively tranquil through the next 5 to
7 days. A somewhat amplified, yet progressive mid level pattern
looks to exist across the Continental U.S. During the period. For today and tnt
a system does dig toward the Central High plains. This system will
likely bring some light snow to parts of western and southern South
Dakota, just clipping the abr southwest County Warning Area. After that, conditions
look basically dry for the rest of the time period as ridging aloft
spreads into the region. A southern stream trof does eject into the
region on Thursday, but virtually all model data suggests this
feature will come through dry, plus there are differences on the
track/strength of the wave. As for temperatures, a cold airmass will
likely remain in place through early next week, but will slowly
modify. By mid to late next week, conditions will be such that a
milder airmass will advect off the High Plains, and into the region.
850 mb temps of +5c or greater are expected at that time. The vast
snowpack across the region, however, will likely put a damper on
temps except for afternoons where decent low level mixing occurs. At
least temperatures will approach or exceed normal levels during this
time.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1133 am CST Sat Dec 14 2019

VFR ceilings and visibilities are likely throughout the day
before MVFR ceilings are expected for the western taf sites this
evening. MVFR ceilings will work their way across the area and
affect the eastern taf sites Sunday morning. Kpir could see some
very light snow tonight, but is not expected to accumulate or
greatly reduce visibilities.

&&

Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations