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fxus63 kabr 142350 aaa 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
550 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

issued at 550 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

00z aviation discussion updated below.


Short term...(this evening through Friday afternoon)
issued at 303 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

A warm front a pushed across the region this afternoon with
temperatures reaching the mid 40s, in western Minnesota, to the low
50s from the James River west. A surface cold front currently over
northern ND will slide southeastward tonight, bringing low clouds
into the County Warning Area. Based on buffer soundings, patchy freezing drizzle
will be possible over the far northeast portion of the County Warning Area. With the
depth of the low level saturation generally under 1 km, the
patchy freezing drizzle should not be much of an issue. Patchy to
areas of fog will be possible across most of the County Warning Area tonight into
Friday. Dense fog will be possible as well. Temperatures on Friday
will be problematic due to cloudy skies. NAM guidance suggests
cloudy skies remaining over a good portion of the area through
Friday with highs mostly in the low 30s. Other models indicate
partial clearing, which allows temps to warm into the 40s. Did
trim temps back a couple degrees, mainly in the northeastern County Warning Area.
Cloudy skies will likely continue on Friday night, which combined
with increasing southerly winds should produce lows in the upper
20s, to the low 30s.

Long term...(friday evening through thursday)
issued at 303 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

The extended period opens with an upper trough moving in and a weak
sfc front. Light precipitation is expected with this system. Weak
systems will be the pattern through the middle of next week with one
slated for Sunday night/early Monday and another for
Tuesday/Wednesday. Daytime highs under northwest flow Sunday and
Monday or a building ridge by Tuesday will be at or above average.
These temps will be sufficient to support rain during the day with
snow or a mix at night. No significant accumulations are expected at
this time.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 550 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

IFR/MVFR stratus ceilings and fog are expected to sink into the
region from the north tonight into early Friday morning affecting
all locations. Pir is expected to only receive some light fog. The
ceilings and fog are expected to lift through the morning with
MVFR/low VFR ceilings expected to remain at abr and aty.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


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