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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
1105 am CST Thu Dec 5 2019

issued at 1059 am CST Thu Dec 5 2019

A cold front is currently passing through north central/central
South Dakota. Behind it, northwest winds are gusting in the 20-30
mph range (mobridge recently gusted to 28 mph). Low clouds are
making their way across the ND/South Dakota border at this time as well.
Both the wind and cloud cover will continue to sweep southeast
through the afternoon. Still expecting calmer winds tonight, and
colder air.


Short term...(today through Friday afternoon)
issued at 250 am CST Thu Dec 5 2019

Weak low pressure is moving across North Dakota early this morning.
Most of the clouds associated with it are remaining north of this
forecast area, though some may skirt the state border. Northerly
winds will increase today behind this low and ahead of building sfc
high pressure. As high pressure drops in from northwest to
southeast, winds will become calm Thursday night across the Missouri
River valley. Some fog may develop in the calm to light winds after
some continued snow melt today. Return flow will set up on Friday
with breezy southerly winds drawing up warmer temperatures into
central South Dakota again.

Temperatures are the main challenge again today, as they have been
the past few days. Leaned toward consall and European model (ecmwf) for highs today
and Friday while going a little colder than guidance across the east

Long term...(friday evening through wednesday)
issued at 250 am CST Thu Dec 5 2019

The period starts out dry and seasonable with breezy winds Friday
night on the Coteau. May see some enhancement on the Lee of the
Coteau, but impacts will be minimal as any snow on the ground is
crusted over and not easily blowable.

Models still suggest an Arctic front sweeping through the area
Sunday night and into Monday. This will quickly squeeze out what
moisture is available and produce light snow across much of the
region. GFS model soundings indicate that there could be a brief
lack of ice initially on the front side of any precipitation. This
would potentially lead to very light freezing rain/drizzle, but kept
it as all snow for now. Frigid temperatures are progged to follow
with highs in the single digits for much of the area for the first
half of the next work week. Lows in the negatives are also expected
for most of northeast and north central South Dakota, as well as
west central Minnesota.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 524 am CST Thu Dec 5 2019

VFR conditions this morning will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR as
stratus moves in with high pressure later today. Stratus and/or
shallow fog may redevelop across central South Dakota late tonight after
briefly clearing.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


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