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fxus63 kabr 220226 cca 
afdabr

Area forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
926 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Update...
issued at 918 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Radar echoes were weakening this evening over the eastern cwa and
expect these to dissipate towards midnight or a little later.
Otherwise, very windy conditions remain and should continue
through the night. Will let the High Wind Warning and advisory
continue through the night. Updated forecast earlier.

Update issued at 712 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 236 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Low pressure will continue to exit to the east this evening.
Strong northerly winds will gradually diminish through the night.
Left the headlines alone for the time being, though warning levels
may be more localized than widespread across the east this evening.

The reprieve from precipitation will be brief as the next system
follows closely behind the current one. Upper troughing and a weak
sfc low will move through the Dakotas Tuesday night and Wednesday
bringing a quick dash of rain and snow. Accumulations up to an inch
are possible across north central SD, but will mainly be on the
order of a dusting to a couple tenths of an inch.

Temperatures will be below normal through the period, though only by
about 5 degrees.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 236 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

At the onset of the period, a quick moving and weak clipper system
is progged to be located over the region. The potential exists for
some light snow to be falling in northeast/north central South
Dakota and west central Minnesota. Snow won't last long and will
likely either be mixed with rain or turn to all rain in the
afternoon. Overall coverage of precipitation will not be great and
total snow accumulations for areas that receive snow will generally
be no more than a dusting to half inch. Liquid equivalent totals are
expected to be around a few hundredths, although localized amounts
of a tenth of an inch or slightly more are possible.

The rest of the week generally looks dry until the weekend when
another trough and associated fropa could produce additional light
precipitation. Of interest, towards the beginning of next week
(very tail end of the forecast period), there are indications of
another longwave trough digging very deep into the southwest Continental U.S..
will have to monitor to see if this materializes and if so, whether
or not any stronger waves of energy are ejected northeastward next
week beyond the forecast period.

Temperatures for the forecast period mostly remain well below
average for highs (40s), although Friday and especially Saturday are
exceptions and look to be around average (mid to upper 50s) to above
average (upper 50s to low 60s) for this time of year.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 712 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Very windy conditions will remain at abr and aty through tonight and
through much of the day Tuesday as a strong surface low pressure
area moves away from the region. Pir/mbg winds will decrease tonight
into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, the light rain will end at aty this
evening as the MVFR ceilings slowly move away through tonight into
Tuesday morning.



&&

Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...High Wind Warning until 4 am CDT Tuesday for sdz007-008-011-
020>023.

Wind Advisory until 4 am CDT Tuesday for sdz006-018-019.

Minnesota...High Wind Warning until 4 am CDT Tuesday for mnz039-046.

&&

$$

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