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fxus63 kabr 130543 aaa 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
1143 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

06z aviation discussion updated below.

Update issued at 922 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

Radar returns starting to increase off to our northwest this
evening as upper level lift from a short wave trough approaches.
Several surface obs showing light rain or mixed precipitation.
Therefore, made a few adjustments to weather and pops for tonight
as this lift moves into our area.

Update issued at 550 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

00z aviation discussion updated below.


Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 318 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

Main forecast challenge deals with a weak system/frontal boundary
set to track across the area late tonight into the day Wednesday.
The front will reach the western part of the County Warning Area by midnight or so,
then slowly tracks eastward, exiting the County Warning Area by 18z Wednesday. Some
weak upper level forcing will accompany the system, which will aid
in precipitation development. Conditions look cold enough for the
precipitation to be snow over most of the area, with the exception
of the far southwestern part of the cwa, where there may be a brief
period of warmer air above the surface, so cannot rule out a little
light freezing rain or sleet along the leading edge of the
precipitation shield. The only model sounding that really shows this
occurring is the rap, so will keep pops fairly low during the time
period when this may occur. Precipitation amounts look minimal at
this time, with most locations only expected to receive a dusting to
maybe one half inch of snow. High pressure slides back in behind the
exiting front late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, bringing
a return to dry conditions.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 20s, with highs on Wednesday
ranging from the upper 20s northeast to the mid 30s southwest. Lows
on Wednesday night will generally be in the 10 to 20 degree range.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 318 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

The long term begins with dry conditions with seasonal temperatures
on Thursday due to northwesterly flow aloft. A weak shortwave will
track across the region Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.
Temperatures will be warm enough on Saturday to support rain before
transitioning over to snow Saturday night. Not expecting much quantitative precipitation forecast
with this feature at this time. A surface trough passing through the
region on Sunday into Monday will bring warmer temps into the County Warning Area
with highs on Monday reaching the mid 40s, to the low 50s. Light
rain will be possible with the surface trough. Tuesday could be warm
and dry, as the GFS and Canadian suggests. Or slightly cooler with
light rain as indicated by the European model (ecmwf).


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

A short wave trough will slide southeast across the region tonight
into Wednesday bringing mainly light snow with it. There may be some
mixed precipitation in the Pierre area. The precipitation will end
from northwest to southeast into the late morning hours Wednesday.
Expect vsbys and ceilings to fall to MVFR. Conditions will then
become VFR at all locations during the afternoon hours.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


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