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afdabr

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
319 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 318 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

Warm and dry conditions remain. The forecast area is currently set
up between the exiting surface high stretching from Kansas through IA,
and a weak trough over the western Dakotas (extending from the first
in a series of Canadian lows). The trough will move through central
and eastern South Dakota tonight. While some high clouds will filter in, no
precipitation is expected. Winds will be the main impact. For areas
along and east of the Sisseton hills this will be in the form of
downslope southwesterly winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts exceeding
45 mph through early Saturday morning, with the strongest of these
winds expected from 01-06z. Will continue to monitor for the
needed for a Wind Advisory. Expect highs to be about 10 degrees
above average Saturday afternoon as 850mb temperatures stay around
2 to 4c. High clouds will push in from the northwest during the
day Saturday, with a short break in the afternoon, before thicker
clouds move in Saturday night. Dry conditions remain as a series
of Canadian lows rotate across central to south central Canada.



Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 318 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

The Sunday through Friday period will be mostly dry early on with
near to above normal temperatures. The models and ensembles all show
the upper level flow pattern slowly shifting from northwest flow
aloft early to southwest flow by the end of the period. The Sunday
through Monday period shows a couple weak short waves going across
mainly to our northeast with maybe some rain/snow chances across the
far northeast cwa. The models then show another larger short wave
trough coming from the west and sliding south of our region Monday
night and Tuesday. This will take most of the precipitation with it
to our south with some small chances of light rain/snow into our cwa
for Monday night and Tuesday. The models and ensembles then show a
large upper level low pressure area developing along the West Coast
through late week. This will be sending off short waves Wednesday
night into Friday. Therefore, chances of precipitation return
starting Wednesday night through Friday likely to be mainly light
snow. Otherwise, Sunday will have much above normal temperatures
with highs in the upper 40s to the upper 50s. It will then cool down
to the 40s for Monday and into the mid 30s to the mid 40s through
the rest of the week.



&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1134 am CST Fri Nov 22 2019

VFR ceilings and vis will continue through the period. The main
concern will be low level wind shear overnight out of the
northwest 35-40kts.



&&

Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

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