Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxak69 pafg 170924
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
124 am akdt Thu Oct 17 2019
concerns through Friday will continue to be strong winds along the
Arctic coast to the east of Point Barrow. High pressure moving
across the Beaufort Sea in combination with a leeside trough over
the Brooks range will lead to windy conditions over the Arctic
coast and nearshore areas, with winds continuing to increase
today and will persist into the weekend. Winds are expected to
remain relatively light over the West Coast through the remainder
of the week. Gusty winds will also be seen over the Brooks range
and higher terrain north of Fairbanks.
The 17/00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis and
are in good agreement through the weekend, especially over the
North Slope and interior Alaska. Wind forecast continues to lean on
the GFS, keeping in line with the stronger forecast winds along
the Beaufort Sea coast.
Aloft...at 500 hpa...a broad area of high pressure over the
western Beaufort Sea will persist generally in place, drifting
eastward to around 150 west through Saturday morning. Broad low
pressure will persist over the Bering Sea with a couple of weak
storms making their way across the southern Bering into Bristol
Bay and toward the Aleutians, today with the second moving slower
and not approaching Bristol Bay until the end of the weekend. An
upper level trough will develop over the West Coast and Bering Sea
late Thu night, moving west over the Gulf of Anadyr as a cutoff
low develops west of the Seward Peninsula Friday afternoon with
the trough extending across the Northwest Arctic coast Saturday.
A developing weak low over the Yukon will drift north through
North Slope and Brooks range: high pressure over the Beaufort Sea
and a leeside trough over the eastern Brooks range will persist
into the weekend. That will translate into strong easterly winds
across the Beaufort Sea coast, starting with the more eastern
areas where strong winds have already developed this morning. The
strong winds will spread westward quickly to impact the entire
Beaufort Sea coast today with gusts up to 55 mph. A weaker trough
will develop over the western Beaufort Sea coast and extend
southwest to the Seward Peninsula, bringing some light snow
showers along the land/marine interface both near utqiagvik and
along the coast of the Seward Peninsula Thu night through Fri.
West Coast and western interior: an inverted trough over the
northern Bering Sea and Seward Peninsula will continue to weaken
and move south over the central Bering Sea. Scattered and isolated
snow showers over the area will diminish with mostly cloudy skies
expected north across the area. A weak low pressure system will
develop over western Norton Sound on Friday evening and will bring
another round of snow showers to the West Coast and Bering Strait.
Central and eastern interior: high pressure aloft will limit
precipitation over the interior today and tonight with areas of
stratus continuing over the area through Saturday. A trough will
develop to the south and east of Fairbanks on Saturday and Sunday
which will bring periods of snow showers over much of the central
interior to the east and south of Fairbanks with minimal snow
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none.
Gale Warning for akz204.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz225-pkz230-pkz235.
Gale Warning for pkz240-pkz245.