Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
346 am EDT Mon Oct 14 2019
high pressure returns to the area today into Tuesday. Rain
chances increase early Wednesday ahead of a stronger cold front.
Clearing with gusty winds and falling temperatures for mid/late
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 345 am EDT Monday...
Weak low pressure exits the mid Atlantic coast early this morning
with sharply decreasing chances for rain. Low stratus and fog will
mix out rather quickly inland but low clouds will hold on into
the early afternoon across the southeast. Clearing skies and
dry westerly flow will allow temperatures to warm into the mid
and upper 70s this afternoon. Clear skies tonight will result in
cool overnight low temps, ranging from the mid 40s across the
Piedmont to the low 50s east of I-95.
Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/...
as of 345 am EDT Monday...
Dry and pleasant on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 70s. Winds
turn to the southeast by afternoon as surface high pressure migrates
offshore ahead of low pressure over the Great Lakes. Secondary low
pressure will form over the Carolinas Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Models have trended about 6 hours slower with the onset
of higher pops spreading from SW to NE Wednesday morning. Some much
needed rain will impact the area mid/late morning into the
afternoon with high temperatures in the mid 60s northwest to mid 70s
southeast. Forecast soundings do show some meager instability across
the east and southeast Wednesday afternoon ahead of the cold
front so have included slight chance of thunder in these areas.
Pops trend downward quickly Wednesday evening with gusty west-northwest
winds remaining elevated overnight. Cool overnight lows behind
the front ranging from the mid 40s west to about 50 degrees near
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
as of 240 PM EDT Sunday...
Cold front pushes well off the coast Wed night. Cool/dry air on
gusty west-northwest winds expected through Thu as trough aloft is slow to
depart to the east-northeast. Sfc hi pres brings dry wx Fri into next
weekend (w/ near seasonable temperatures).
Lows Wed night from the M-u40s inland to the l50s at the coast.
Highs Thu in the l-m60s. Lows Thu night 40-45f inland to around
50f at the immediate coast. Highs Fri in the l-m60s. Lows Fri
night in the l-m40s inland to the l50s at the (immediate coast).
Highs Sat in the u60s-l70s. Highs sun in the l70s at the coast
and m70s elsewhere.
Aviation /08z Monday through Friday/...
as of 140 am EDT Monday...
Steadier rain and a few rumbles of thunder are quickly coming
to an end across the southeast terminals and the Eastern Shore. A
trailing area of -shra will translate eastward prior to sunrise.
IFR cigs prevail at ric tonight. Somewhat uncertain at sby, and
orf with tempo groups covering the potential for IFR conditions
through 14.11z. Do expect prevailing IFR cigs at phf late
tonight with MVFR conditions prevailing at ecg. Cigs lift this
morning to MVFR then VFR at ric and sby, slightly later for phf
and orf and closer to noon at ecg. Winds will generally be from
the west aob 10 knots through the period.
high pres pushes across the region Mon night and Tue. A
stronger cold front crosses the region Wed with possible shras
and flight restrictions.
as of 320 am EDT Monday...
A weak area of low pressure is currently located over the
NC/southern Virginia coastal plain, and is expected to gradually push
off to the NE later this morning. Winds are currently west/SW at
around 10 kt (up to 15 kt on southern coastal waters) and are
forecast to shift to the west/northwest later this morning. Light winds by
later aftn may allow flow to become onshore in the Bay and southeast
av/NE NC coast. Seas will avg 3-4 ft with Bay waves 1-2 ft. Another
weak cold front crosses the waters early Tue am, and while winds
will increase the cold air advection and pressure gradient is too weak for
issuance of any Small Craft Advisory headlines. North/NE winds at up to 15 kt with a
few gusts to 20 kt. Tue am will become east at 5-10 kt during the
aftn. Sub- Small Craft Advisory conditions then prevail through at least the
first part of Tue night before another area of low pressure is
progged to impact the area on Wed, followed by a much stronger
cold front Wed night. Solid scas (due to winds) look likely Wed
night-Thu behind the front. Local wind probabilities are
starting to latch onto ~50% chance for gale gusts at buoy 44009
by Wed evening and expect that gales may be needed over the
northern coastal waters. Due to the offshore northwest flow, seas will
not build that much despite the strong winds, generally to 4-6
ft while waves in the Bay build to ~4 ft with 2-3 ft waves in
the rivers. The current forecast has winds remaining aoa Small Craft Advisory
thresholds through ~12z Fri. Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions return by late
Fri as high pressure settles over the waters.
as of 320 am EDT Monday...
Still seeing predominant ebbing at the mouth of the ches Bay
and as a result, water levels in the Bay continue to fall and
with high tide having passed at Bishops Head, no additional
flooding is anticipated. Will allow the coastal flood statement
for the Maryland Eastern Shore to expire by 4 am.
Minor flooding is still occurring across sound side portions of
NE NC, so the coastal flood advisory has been extended there
through noon today. SW to west winds shifting to the northwest may help
push much of this water back out of the sound towards the ocean
later today with Falling Water levels expected.
The rip current risk will be moderate over area beaches today.
NC...coastal flood advisory until noon EDT today for ncz015>017-