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fxus61 kakq 231921 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
321 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019

high pressure builds across the region through Thursday.
A cold front crosses the area Sunday, providing the next chance
of rain.


Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
as of 210 PM EDT Wednesday...

Sunshine is prevalent across the local area this afternoon, as
are pleasant temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. This thanks to
surface high pressure just west of the area that will spread
eastward and over the area for tonight. With the high overhead,
tonight will be much cooler with lows dropping into the
mid/upper 30s Piedmont to mid-upr 40s nearest the coast. Frost
headlines have been issued for areas where widespread frost is
expected (louisa & Fluvanna county). However, patchy fog will
likely extend further south and east across the Piedmont.


Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Saturday/...
as of 210 PM EDT Wednesday...

Dry, pleasant conditions continue on Thursday with high pressure
traversing the area. Highs will range from the upper 60s to
lower 70s once again, overnight lows Friday morning should be a
touch warmer compared to tonight with readings from the low 40s
west to the low 50s nearest the coast.

Models are in better agreement today showing high pressure
remaining over the area on Friday, and then sliding offshore on
Saturday. This will keep dry weather in place until the
possibility of a late day shower on Saturday. As moisture
returns from the south, clouds will be on the increase through
the day Friday, with a mostly cloudy sky on Saturday. Highs on
Friday will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs
Saturday will range from the low 60s northwest to the low 70s southeast. Lows
Friday night from the upr 40s northwest to the mid-upr 50s near the


Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
as of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

Guidance has come into better agreement with respect to the
evolution of low pressure (sfc-aloft) this weekend. Model consensus
is now forecasting the low to track from the ern Midwest to the
nern Great Lakes from Sat night-sun evening. Shower chances
increase from west to east during the day on sun as deep layered
southwesterly flow allows moisture to increase across the area
(ahead of a weak trailing cold front). Shower chances shift to
southeast Virginia/NE NC by late Sun night as the cold front crosses most of the
region and the best deep layer moisture shifts southeast. Mainly dry
on Mon (w/ a slight chc of a shower across ern/sern zones) as
weak high pressure settles to our north.

Model solutions (again) diverge for the mid-late week period.
Will side with the European model (ecmwf)/Gem over the GFS solution. While the
GFS has a deep upper trough amplifying over the ern Continental U.S. By
midweek (and a strong cold front crossing the area on tue), the
European model (ecmwf)/Gem have the deep trough over the central Continental U.S. By
Wed/Thu with upper ridging over the southeast Continental U.S./Wrn Atlantic. Will
keep dry/seasonable wx in the forecast for Tue, with shower
chances increasing by Wed night (to 20-30%) as the
aforementioned upper trough (along with a sfc low/trailing cold
front) slowly moves ewd.

Fairly mild on sun/Mon with highs around 70f in most areas (w/
low-mid 70s across southeast Virginia/NE nc). Slightly cooler by midweek with
highs mainly in the 60s on Wed (w/ aftn highs still around 70s
across far southeast Virginia/NE nc). Morning lows mainly in the 50s-low 60s
on sun/Mon, cooling to the mid 40s-low 50s in most areas by Wed.


Aviation /19z Wednesday through Monday/...
as of 210 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected through the 18z taf period. Other
than northwest winds gusting around 15-20 kt on the lower Maryland Eastern
Shore this afternoon, winds will generally be light through the

Outlook: VFR conditions are likely through Saturday as surface
high pressure builds across the region. The next system
impacts the region Saturday night and Sunday, when degraded
flight conditions will occur.


as of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Much quieter weather is in store for the remainder of the week as
high pressure, currently centered over northern MS and al, continues
to build into the region. Winds are generally from the north and
northwest at 5-10 knots this afternoon. Waves in the Bay are 1-2 ft
while seas offshore are running 2-4 ft.

Winds will be light overnight and become easterly into Thursday as
high pressure builds north of the region. The high will migrate
offshore by Thursday evening with winds becoming southeast 5-10 kts ahead
of a weak frontal boundary. Waves stay in the 1-2 ft range through
the end of the week with seas generally 2-3 ft. Global models are
beginning to converge on a solution showing the next system
approaching the area on Saturday and crossing the waters Sunday into
early Monday.


Akq watches/warnings/advisories...
Virginia...frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am EDT Thursday for vaz048-509-


near term...jdm

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