Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kakq 141947
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
347 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019
high pressure moves across the local area through Tuesday. Rain
chances increase early Wednesday ahead of a stronger cold
front. Clearing with gusty winds Wednesday night into Thursday.
Dry and pleasant Friday and Saturday.
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
as of 315 PM EDT Monday...
St has been very slow to erode over southeast Virginia-NE NC through this
afternoon. Clearing will continue for those areas this
evening...otw sky clear tonight W/ light winds. Have included patchy
fog over parts of ern/srn/se Virginia and NE NC (mainly after midnight)
due to the late clearing today (limiting too much drying). Lows
from the M-u40s along-west of I-95 to the l-m50s east.
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday/...
as of 215 PM EDT Monday...
Dry and pleasant wx Tue W/ mainly sky clear and highs in the l70s north
and m70s central/S. Winds turn to the southeast by afternoon as sfc hi
pres drifts off the coast ahead of lo pres over the Great Lakes.
Secondary lo pres will form over the Carolinas Tue night into
early Wed. Onset of higher pops spreading from SW to NE late Tue
night through Wed morning. Some much needed rain will impact
the area from about mid morning through early afternoon. Highs
in the m60s northwest to m70s southeast. Forecast soundings do show some
meager instability across the east and southeast portions Wed afternoon
ahead of the cold front so have continued W/ a slight chance T
mention in those areas. Pops trend downward quickly by late Wed
afternoon/evening as gusty west-northwest winds begin to usher in
Winds stay up Wed night...esp east of I-95. Otw...sky clear and cool Wed
night W/ from the l-m40s west of I-95 to the l50s at the coast.
Deep layered west-northwest flow Thu as hi pres remains west of the mountains.
Still a bit breezy/(even windy near the coast) W/ a partly
cloudy sky. Highs in the l-m60s.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
as of 130 PM EDT Monday...
Sfc hi pres moves across the forecast area Fri-Sat resulting in dry/near
seasonable wx. Return flow behind the high as it moves off the
coast sun through Mon will likely bring an increase in moisture
(and pops) from the SW ahead of lo pres tracking through the
Midwest - initially inland during sun...then all areas by Sun
Lows Thu night 40-45f inland to around 50f at the immediate
coast. Highs Fri in the l-m60s. Lows Fri night in the l-m40s
inland to the l50s at the (immediate coast). Highs Sat in the
u60s-l70s. Lows Sat night in the u40s inland to the l-m50s at
the coast. Highs sun in the l70s at the coast and m70s elsewhere.
Highs Mon from the l70s north to the u70s far southeast.
Aviation /20z Monday through Saturday/...
as of 110 PM EDT Monday...
Lingering broken MVFR cigs a little while longer in vicinity of
orf/phf/ecg...otw VFR/sky clear through the 18z taf forecast period.
Winds mainly light from the north-northwest becoming light/vrb tonight then north-northeast
aob 10 kt Tue. A stronger cold front crosses the region Wed
with shras and flight restrictions. Period of gusty west-northwest winds
Post cold front Wed night-early Thu...otw VFR Wed night-Fri.
as of 345 PM EDT Monday...
Late this aftn, a weak cold front was laying acrs NE NC, while
sfc high pressure was over the Ohio Valley and Kentucky. This front will
push southeast of the area this evening, then another weak cold front
will cross the waters early Tue morning. While winds will
increase, the cold air advection and pressure gradient is too weak for
issuance of any Small Craft Advisory headlines. North/NE winds at up to 15 kt with a
few gusts to 20 kt will be possible. NE winds 5-15 kt Tue
morning will become east at 5-10 kt during the aftn. Sub-Small Craft Advisory
conditions then prevail through Tue night, before another area
of low pressure is progged to impact the area on Wed, followed
by a much stronger cold front Wed night. Solid scas (due to
winds) look likely Wed night-Thu behind the front. Local wind
probabilities are starting to latch onto ~50% chance for gale
gusts at buoy 44009 by Wed night, and expect that gales may be
needed over the northern coastal waters. Due to the offshore northwest
flow, seas will not build that much despite the strong winds,
generally to 4-6 ft while waves in the Bay build to ~4 ft with
2-3 ft waves in the rivers. The current forecast has winds
remaining aoa Small Craft Advisory thresholds for Bay and coast through ~12z
Fri. Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions return by late Fri, as high pressure
settles over the waters.
as of 345 PM EDT Monday...
Nuisance to minor flooding is still occurring across sound side
portions of NE NC, so will issue a coastal flood statement
through this evening to cover this. SW to west winds shifting to
the north or NE may help push much of this water back out of the
sound towards the ocean this evening with Falling Water levels
The rip current risk will be moderate over area beaches through