Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kakq 060853
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
353 am EST Fri Dec 6 2019
a cold front crosses the area tonight with high pressure returning
for the weekend. Low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes region
early next week, dragging a strong cold front across the area Tuesday
night. Canadian high pressure builds in for the mid week period.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 340 am EST Friday...
Latest msas shows high pressure along the coast with a weak upr lvl
S/W across nrn Virginia (noted by bkn high level clouds). Meanwhile, a
cold front was located well west of the mts. Models continue to show
an increase in mid level moisture today ahead of the cold front
progged to cross the area tonite. Thus, expect some sun to start
off the day with skies bcmg cldy to mstly cldy this aftrn. Dry as
any moisture assctd with a weak energy dvlpg along the Gulf Stream
stays south of the local area.
Return SW flow results in a mild day and breezy (at times). Highs
mid 50s north to arnd 60 se.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/...
as of 340 am EST Friday...
The cold front will cross the area tonight. Little if any lift is
noted to generate pcpn but won't rule out a stray shwr/sprinkle
across the sern portions of the fa with the fropa. Otw, decreasing
clouds north-south thru the nite. Winds become north allowing for
some cold air advection to set in. Lows by 12z Sat in the 30s except near 40 se.
Sunny but cool Sat as high pressure builds tracks north of the area.
Highs in the mid-upr 40s except arnd 50 ivof Albemarle Sound. Clear
Sat night as the ridge axis moves overhead. Lows in the mid-upr 20s
except 30-35 near the water. The high pushes off the NE coast sun.
This allows moisture to increase through the day as wind become south-southeast.
Increasing clouds and milder with highs upr 40s northwest to upr 50s southeast.
Moisture quickly overspreads the area sun nite due to a S/W trof
moving up from south-southeast. Chc eve pops increase to likely after midnite
across the west. Hints at an insitu-wedge across the Piedmont. Lows
upr 30s northwest to near 50 southeast.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
as of 345 PM EST Thursday...
The aforementioned trough aloft quickly amplifies across the
plains early next week as sfc low pressure deepens as it tracks
from the plains to the Great Lakes. A series of upper
disturbances will continue to track toward/across the region
through Tue as the associated cold front slowly approaches from
the W/NW. Strong warm air advection will continue through Tue (850 mb temps
rising to 8-12c by 12z tue) under deep-layered SW flow. With the
area likely remaining in the warm sector from Mon-Tue, expect a
good chc of (occasional) showers to continue from Mon through
Tue. Have high chc-likely pops through much of this time period,
as it is too far out to be specific with the exact timing of
each occurrence of showers. Mild Monday W/ highs in the upper
50s to around 60f in the Piedmont west of ric, with low-mid 60s
east of I-95.
The frontal passage likely holds off until sometime during the
latter half of the day on Tue. As a result, look for highs well
into the 60s on Tuesday...with the potential for some low 70s
in Hampton Roads/NE NC with any aftn sun. High-end chc pops
continue through the day on Tue with some Post-frontal rain
possible Tue night-early Wed (especially se). Lows Tue night
range from the mid 30s north/west to the low 40s in southeast Virginia/NE NC.
Strong high pressure builds into the Great Lakes by midweek, but
it quickly migrates eastward (becoming centered over New England
by Thursday evening). This will result in a short-lived period
of below average temperatures on Wed/Thu, due to cold Canadian
air sweeping across the region behind the departing front.
Forecast highs are mainly in the 40s on Wed/Thu, although mid-
upper 30s are possible across central/nrn zones. Model consensus
is forecasting the high to move offshore of the New England
coast on Fri as low pressure develops near the Gulf Coast (which
will likely impact the ern Continental U.S. By next weekend).
Aviation /09z Friday through Tuesday/...
as of 1245 am EST Friday...
VFR conditions continue through the forecast period. High level
clouds assctd with an upr lvl systm crosses ric/sby this morning
with a mid level cloud deck expected to overspread the region
throughout the day ahead of a cold front progged to cross the
area this eve. Models show little if any moisture with the fropa,
a lght shwr psbl at ecg after 00z at most. SW winds ahead of the
front may gust to btwn 15-20 kts later today.
winds turn to the west/northwest behind the front and remain gusty at times
along the coast. High pressure then builds in for the weekend. VFR
conditions are expected through the weekend.
as of 345 am EST Friday...
Light onshore flow this morning under 5 kts as high pressure sits
just off the Carolina coast. Waves in the Bay are less than a foot
and seas in the near shore coastal waters are only around a foot. SW
winds will increase beginning this morning ahead of an approaching
cold front that will cross the area overnight Friday into early
Saturday. Expect winds 10-15 kts in the Bay and 15-20 kts in the
middle and lower coastal waters. Small Craft Advisory GOES into effect for the
northern coastal waters off the Eastern Shore at 18z today as gusts
this afternoon will be 25-30 kts. Waves in the Bay build to 2-3 ft
and seas 2-4 ft northern coastal waters and 2-3 ft southern coastal
Winds become north/northwest late Friday into early Saturday after the front
crosses the area waters. Winds increase to 15-20 kts in the Bay with
gusts to 25 kts, and 20-25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts in the
coastal waters. Waves in the Bay build to 2-4 ft and seas build to 3-
5 ft in the middle and northern coastal waters and 4-6 ft in the
southern coastal waters. Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for the Bay, rivers,
coastal waters, and Currituck Sound from early Saturday morning
through early Saturday afternoon, lingering into Saturday evening
for the southern coastal waters and Currituck Sound.
Winds along with waves/seas will subside by late Saturday night as
the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure builds into the area
for the remainder of the weekend.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 1 am to 1 PM EST Saturday for
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Saturday for anz630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 am to 7 PM EST Saturday for anz633-
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
Saturday for anz650-652.