Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kaly 150558
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
1258 am EST Fri Nov 15 2019
milder temperatures are expected today ahead of an
approaching frontal boundary. A few passing snow showers and
flurries are possible late in the day and into the evening with an
Arctic cold front. Behind this front, much colder temperatures
and dry conditons will return for the weekend.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 1258 am EST...our region is downstream of an approaching
upper level shortwave trough and associated Arctic cold front.
Infrared satellite imagery shows overcast skies from the northern
Catskills, capital region and Berkshires northward. Meanwhile,
skies are completely clear across the southeastern Catskills,
Mid Hudson valely and northwest CT. Based on satellite trends, northern
areas look to remain fairly cloudy through much of the
overnight, although some clearing may works into the capital
region, Berkshires and southern Vermont for late in the night.
Temperatures have really dropped off quickly for southern areas
that have cleared out, while temps remain in the upper 20s to
mid 30s for areas that are cloudy. Lows look to be in the 20s
everywhere, with the lowest readings across areas that have been
clear the longest. No precip is expected through the overnight
as the large-scale forcing will take until during the day on
Friday to reach our area.
Short term /6 am this morning through Saturday night/...
more record breaking cold this weekend.
Milder Friday with temperatures closer to normal for mid-November
ahead of a secondary cold front. Upper level support will be to
our north as northern stream energy rotates about the upper low
over hudson' Bay Canada. Showers activity associated with the
approach and passage of the front is expected Friday afternoon
and evening and limited to areas mainly north in I-90 in the
form of snow showers. Quantitative precipitation forecast will be light. Colder air will be
ushered back in with the passage of the cold front as we head
into the weekend.
Highs Friday mainly in the 30s with lower 40s in the Mid Hudson
valley up into the capital district and across northwestern
Connecticut with any 20s limited to above 2000 feet. Temperatures
are expected to drop down into the teens Friday night with single
digits across the southern Adirondacks and higher terrain of
southern Vermont. Some readings around zero degrees for the
Stillwater Reservoir area.
Cold Canadian high pressure will build in and shift eastward across
the region. The center of the high will move from the Great Lakes
region late Friday night across the north country to northern New
England Saturday night. Cold and dry with record low Max/highs
possibly being reach or broken on Saturday and lows Sunday morning.
Record low Max/high November 16th:
Albany ny: 28 degrees 1933
Glens Falls ny: 25 degrees 1933
Poughkeepsie ny:31 degrees 1933
Record lows November 17th:
Albany ny: 7 degrees 1924
Glens Falls ny: 5 degrees 1997
Poughkeepsie ny: 14 degrees 1980
Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
those seeking at least some relief from the recent stretch of much
below normal temperatures can find some solace in the long term. The
synoptic pattern favors a general ridge of high pressure position in
the central Atlantic and a longwave trough over the central U.S. This
should induce a southwest flow regime over the northeast U.S and
provide opportunities for temperatures to inch their way closer to
normal which for mid-November in eastern New York/western New England is
highs in the low-mid 40s and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.
However, global guidance suggests that multiple shortwaves will be
rounding the base of the aforementioned trough and thus may lead to
a few chances for precipitation including potential for wintry mix.
Read on for details.
We start the long term period off on Sunday with a strong dome of
high pressure centered over northern New England/Canadian maritime
with a shortwave escaping off the southeast U.S coast and riding up
the western periphery of the central Atlantic ridge. Current
guidance suggest the ridge is far enough off shore that the bulk of
the forcing remains off shore. However, guidance continues to
suggest that enough warm air advection reaches into the aly County Warning Area late
Sunday night into Monday that we could experience some overrunning
precipitation. With a cold air mass positioned over northern New
England and warm air advecting up and over it, this is a classic set-
up for our region to experience wintry mix including freezing rain
and/or sleet. Dew points are low in the 20s at the onset of this
event and with northeasterly surface flow, surface temperatures
likely will remain chilly between the cold air advection and wet-
bulb diabatic cooling processes. Therefore, confidence is increasing
that if strong enough warm air advection reaches into the aly County Warning Area and leads to
overrunning precipitation, it probably will fall as a wintry mix on
Monday. Given the current guidance keeps the bulk of the warm nose
well to our east off the New England coast, surface temperatures
probably will not have much of chance to warm much, especially since
our early am Monday temperatures should be quite cool in the 20s.
The main uncertainty with the Monday event is not so much on the
thermal profile but more so on the forcing and if eastern New York/western
New England experiences precipitation. The ecwmf and CMC-New Hampshire are the
wetter solutions and suggest overrunning precipitation reach through
most of our County Warning Area while the GFS is drier and hints that dry air may
hang tight and limit the quantitative precipitation forecast. For now, we placed the higher pops in
western New England which should be closer to the low and tapered
them down heading into the Adirondacks.
The remainder of the week remain uncertain as the longwave trough
from the Midwest advances eastward with a few shortwaves rounding
its base and heading towards the northeast. We do remain in a
general southwest flow regime through Wednesday night which should
help allow temperatures to become a bit milder and rise into the
upper 30s to low 40s. Chances for precipitation will also continue
given the rather active pattern but guidance varies on timing and
placement of the shortwaves so too early to give details. For now,
we confined pops to slight chance or low end chance pops through
most of the week since we do not see a clear signal for widespread
precipitation through Thursday. Thermal profiles at this point look
to support either rain or rain/snow mix for most of the period,
outside of the Adirondacks which should favor more snow.
Aviation /06z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour taf
period ending 06z Saturday. There is a thick deck of mid level
clouds currently across the northern 2/3 of the area, mainly from
around kpsf northward to kalb and kgfl, while skies are clear at
kpou. These clouds should generally remain in place, but could erode
along the southern edge by morning. Regardless of cloud cover,
conditions will remain VFR.
An Arctic cold front will then push southward from Canada during the
evening. There is limited moisture with this system, with scattered
snow showers possible at kgfl but only flurries at kalb/kpsf. Winds
will abruptly shift to the north and become gusty behind the cold
front between around 02z-04z Saturday.
Winds will be southerly up to around 5 kt through the rest of the
night, becoming west-southwest and increasing to around 8-11 kt by
late morning. Occasional gusts near 20 kt will be possible,
especially at kalb. Winds will shift to the north-northwest behind
the Arctic cold front late this evening.
Friday night: low operational impact. Breezy slight chance of shsn.
Saturday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain...fzra...sleet.
Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain...sn...sleet.
Tuesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain...sn.
tonight and Friday will be milder with temperatures closer to normal
for mid-November. However, another cold airmass arrives over the
weekend with the passage of a cold front accompanied by some snow
showers Friday afternoon and evening mainly north of Interstate
hydrologic problems are not expected over the next several days,
however shallow non-moving bodies of water will continue see ice
form due to the cold below normal temperatures. The precipitation
that occurs will be light into the weekend.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including latest
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit
the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our