Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kaly 161249
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
849 am EDT Mon Sep 16 2019
a cold front will bring isolated to scattered light rain showers
to areas mainly south of Interstate 90 through this morning.
High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes region this
afternoon with fair weather and slightly cooler than normal
temperatures. The surface high will bring fair and cool weather
through mid week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 849 am EDT, clouds and isolated light showers/sprinkles
continue south of the I-90 corridor, and should remain south and
west of Albany today. Best chances for light showers and
sprinkles will be from the eastern Catskills south and east into
the Mid Hudson valley, southern Taconics, southern Berkshires
and across Litchfield County CT. Minor changes to pops based on
radar trends. Also adjusted cloud cover based on visible
otherwise, any showers should remain light, with quantitative precipitation forecast generally
ranging from a trace to less than one tenth of an inch across
mainly southern areas.
The showers/sprinkles should shift southward late this morning
and early afternoon to areas near the I-84 corridor, before
shifting even farther south by mid to late afternoon. Elsewhere,
there should be a sharpening northern edge to the cloud area
across or north of I-90 later this morning, which should sink
southward this afternoon.
Late day high temps should reach 70-75 in most valley areas,
with mainly 60s for higher terrain areas.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/...
tonight-Wednesday night, mainly clear skies at night, and mostly
sunny skies during the day are expected as a surface high builds
southward from Quebec. A weak upper level disturbance is
expected to track southward during Wednesday, which could bring
some clouds to mainly eastern areas Wednesday afternoon and
With an increasingly dry air mass in place, there should be
large diurnal fluctuations in temps from early morning low
temps. Expect mainly 40s for most areas tonight and Tuesday
night, with some upper 30s possible across portions of the
southwest Adirondacks, eastern Catskills, southern Vermont and
Berkshires. Patchy frost is possible each night across these
areas. Also, cool nighttime/early morning temps may allow
patchy/areas of fog to form within river valleys and other areas
adjacent to bodies of water, given the relative warmth of any
rivers/streams/lakes compared to the chilly air temps.
Behind the weak upper level disturbance, an even deeper layer of
dry air is expected to spread south and west across the region
Wednesday night, with pwat's possibly dropping as low as
0.25-0.5". Clear skies and light winds combined with this very
dry air mass could allow for frost development with slightly
greater areal coverage, especially across portions of western
New England and the Taconics, as well as the southern
Adirondacks. Trends will have to be watched, and if areal
coverage of frost potential develops, frost advisories would be
High temps should generally reach the upper 60s to lower 70s in
valley areas Tue-Wed, with mainly upper 50s to lower 60s across
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
a relatively tranquil weather period is expected as upper level
ridging very gradually builds in from the west. The gradual upper
ridging will support low level ridging and deep subsidence for dry
and sunny weather. Boundary layer temperatures will also slowly warm
and with the mixing potential each day, high temperatures each day
will be a little warmer than the previous day. By next weekend,
there are some signals for the approach of the next upper energy and
associated cold front. So, some clouds and scattered showers could
reach western and northern areas Sunday.
Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s Thursday. Highs Friday in the mid
to upper 70s in the Hudson Valley and northwest CT and around 70 to lower
70s elsewhere. Highs Saturday in the upper 70s to around 80 in the
Hudson Valley and northwest CT and lower to mid 70s elsewhere. Highs Sunday
around 80 to lower 80s in the Hudson Valley and northwest CT and mid to
upper 70s elsewhere.
Aviation /13z Monday through Friday/...
upper disturbance and a band of clouds affecting the kpou and kpsf
areas through around 16z with isolated showers and sprinkles around
kpou. Including vcsh at kpou. Clouds will gradually exit through
the afternoon. MVFR ceilings at kpsf will lift above 3000 feet
later this morning while ceilings above 3000 feet will be dominant
at kpou. Just scattered clouds above 3000 feet are expected at kgfl
and kalb with some intervals of fog at kgfl through about 13z.
VFR conditions everywhere this afternoon through tonight. However,
with light winds and a clear to mostly clear sky will promote some
fog formation around kgfl by 06z.
Light northwest to north winds at less than 10 kt will become north
by this afternoon. Winds trend toward calm this evening and
Tuesday night-friday: no operational impact. Patchy fog possible
late each night/early morning.
an upper level disturbance and a frontal boundary will bring
isolated to scattered light rain showers to areas mainly south
of Interstate 90 through this morning. High pressure will build
in from the Great Lakes region this afternoon with fair weather
and slightly cooler than normal temperatures. The surface high
will bring lots of sunshine and dry weather through the mid
The relative humidity values will lower to 40 to 60 percent during this
afternoon, and then increase near 100 percent by late tonight
with with dew and patchy fog formation likely. Relative humidity should lower
to 35-50 percent by Tuesday afternoon.
Light and variable winds early this morning will become mainly
north to northwest at 5 to 10 mph late this morning into this
afternoon, then become light to calm late tonight through early
no Hydro problems are expected in the Albany Hydro service area
/hsa/ for the next seven days.
There are some abnormally dry areas in the aly hsa based on the
most recent drought monitor, and there is a high probability of
dry weather over the next several days.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.