Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 kaly 141956 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
356 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

high pressure will build in over New York and New England
tonight into Tuesday with seasonable temperatures. A complex
storm system will bring rain into the region Wednesday into
Thursday along with brisk and cool conditions.


Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
band of clouds has advanced into eastern New York from the eastern
Catskills through the capital region and Lake George Saratoga
region. A few isolated showers are in the southern Adirondacks.
There is a brief period of gusty northwest winds behind the cold
front that will track through eastern New York and western New
England through early evening. Cloud cover is expected to mix
out through the evening as deeper subsidence moves in.

The boundary layer thermal gradient will become west/east
oriented through the night and boundary layer temperatures are
expected to cool enough over the Great Lakes that a finger of
clouds could form off the lakes into the southern Adirondacks,
maybe even some scattered to broken clouds into the Lake George
Saratoga region to southern Vermont between midnight and daybreak.

Winds are expected to trend to calm later tonight but boundary
layer northwest winds remain quite steady and there is some question
whether some persistent light northwest winds could channel through
the Mohawk Valley preventing temperatures from falling as much
as they could. The weakening system in Canada and the low level
ridging building into our region suggest the pressure gradient
will be quite weak. So siding with lighter winds and
temperatures falling to the lower end of guidance numbers.

So, mostly clear outside of any potential lake effect clouds
tonight with winds trending to near calm or calm by daybreak.
Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.


Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday/...
core of coldest air over the region as will the axis of low
level ridging. Winds will be very light all day but the sun
should help with some mixing. Highs Tuesday in the mid 50s to
around 60 but upper 40s to lower 50s higher terrain.

Temperatures could drop quickly Tuesday evening before a light
south wind begins before daybreak and perhaps some high clouds
spreading into the region. Temperatures should fall to the 30s
in most areas and cannot rule out some frost potential in parts
of the Hudson Valley if it remains clear long enough.

Strong upper energy approaches Wednesday from the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley, phasing with some southern stream upper energy
Wednesday night and Thursday. Strengthening progressive closed
low forms and rapidly tracks from eastern New England into and
off southeastern Canada. The timing of the leading edge of
deeper cloudiness and rain is a bit uncertain but there is a
general consensus that there will be some sun and warming of
temperatures at least Wednesday morning. Rain will spread from
southwest to northeast through Wednesday afternoon and winds
will become southeast and gusty. Highs Wednesday in the mid 50s
to lower 60s.

Locally heavy rain develops late Wednesday afternoon and affects
the entire region Wednesday night before shifting north of I-90
and into Vermont as upper deformation precipitation forms with the
development and tracking of the closed upper low. There may be
some mixing with snow at the highest peaks of the southern
Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains as the cold air spreads
into our region Thursday morning.

Rain lingers in northern areas and into southern Vermont through
Thursday with just scattered showers in most other areas.
Clouds should linger over much of the region, too. Northwest
winds will likely be gusty as temperatures rise only to the
lower to mid 50s, maybe some upper 50s in southern areas and 40s
northern areas.


Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
the long term will feature two deep northern stream troughs at
the beginning and end of the period with dry weather in between.

The first northern stream trough will be departing the region
Thursday night with some potential wrap around moisture and
shower activity across the higher terrain. This should come to
an end by daybreak Friday but with continued northerly flow,
temperatures will stay on the cool side with highs only in the
50s for most.

Upper ridging builds into the region Friday afternoon and
becomes centered over New York by Saturday morning. This, along
with surface high pressure, will lead to a dry and seasonable
weekend with temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Friday
night looks to be the coolest of the period under clear skies
and calm winds, with lows in the low to mid 30s.

Model guidance becomes a bit muddled as we head into the new
work week with another potential strengthening northern stream
low developing over the Mississippi Valley. This system could
potentially bring another widespread rainfall starting as early
as Monday afternoon. Given the differences in the model
guidance, have stuck close to the er superblend, keeping slight
chance to chance pops for the first half of the new work week.
Temperatures during this time frame look fairly mild, in the mid
to upper 60s.


Aviation /20z Monday through Saturday/...
VFR conditions across the region as at the time of writing this,
clear skies at the taf locations. However, upstream cold front was
approaching as cigs upstream vary between broken VFR or MVFR.
Frontal passage will occur later this afternoon, around 21z, as
skies would become more scattered-broken from southeast to northwest. So
we will keep VFR conditions for all but kpsf where favorable
upslope conditions could bring some lower cigs. Conditions
improve tonight with frontal passage well to the east and VFR
conditions return through Tuesday.

Winds will become more southerly with some occasional gusts
around 20kts this afternoon. Then with frontal passage, winds
shift toward a westerly direction with a brief wind gust or two
before settling down tonight to less than 10kts.


Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday: high operational impact. Breezy definite rain showers...ra.
Wednesday night: high operational impact. Definite rain.
Thursday: moderate operational impact. Breezy chance of rain.
Thursday night: low operational impact. Breezy slight chance of rain showers.
Friday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday: no operational impact. No sig weather.


Fire weather...
high pressure will build in over New York and New England
tonight into Tuesday with seasonable temperatures. A complex
storm system will bring rain into the region Wednesday into
Thursday along with brisk and cool conditions.

Relative humidity values will be 45 to 60 percent Tuesday afternoon. Rainy
conditions are expected Wednesday.

The winds will be northwest at 5 to 15 mph this evening into
tonight with some localized gusts around 25 mph. The winds will
become light to calm on Tuesday, and then increase from the
south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph by Wednesday.

A widespread soaking rainfall is possible Wednesday into


no Hydro problems are expected prior to the mid week, but then a
a widespread soaking rainfall is possible Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday. Some increased flows are likely on the

Total rainfall still varies from the guidance, but one to two
inches are possible in some locations with some locally higher
amounts. Within bank rise are possible on the main Stem rivers.

A period of dry weather will return Friday into the weekend
which should allow flows to slow and decrease.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.


Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.


near term...NAS
short term...NAS

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations