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fxus63 karx 221050 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
450 am CST Fri Nov 22 2019

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 223 am CST Fri Nov 22 2019

At 2 am, skies were mostly cloudy across much of Minnesota,
Wisconsin, northern Iowa, and Illinois. These clouds were in the
wake of a shortwave trough and trapped under a subsidence
inversion. The clouds will gradually break up as the 925 and
850 mb ridge axis moves southeast through the region from mid-morning
into the early afternoon. With 925 mb temperatures between 0 and
-1.5c, high temperatures will top out in the 30s this afternoon.

For tonight, skies will be mainly clear through much of the night
and then mid and high clouds will move into the region toward
sunrise as a shortwave trough approaches the region from the
northern plains. Low temperatures on Saturday morning will be
mainly in the teens in central and north-central Wisconsin and in
the lower and mid-20s elsewhere.

Long term...(saturday through thanksgiving)
issued at 223 am CST Fri Nov 22 2019

For the upcoming weekend, several shortwave troughs will move
southeast through the region. With the low levels very dry, just
expecting some periodic mid and high clouds. High temperatures
will range from the mid-30s to mid 40s. There maybe even a few
upper 40s.

From Sunday night into Monday, a low pressure area will move east
across northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Still plenty of
uncertainty on how far south the precipitation may get. Due to
this uncertainty, kept a 20 to 30 percent chance of precipitation
mainly north of Interstate 90.

From Tuesday into Wednesday, still plenty of uncertainty on how
far north a low pressure may track. Both the operational 22.00z European model (ecmwf)
and Canadian have shifted further northwest with their track and
they would produce measurable snow in our area. Meanwhile, the GFS
would keep this precipitation south and east of the area. With
this said, both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) ensemble members are all over
the place with the track, strength, and timing of this system. In
addition, there has been very little run to run consistency. Due
to this, have far too little confidence to even talk about it in
the hazardous weather outlook.

From Wednesday night into Thanksgiving, the models are in general
agreement that a warm front will be moving east through the
region. This may result in a light wintry mix.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 450 am CST Fri Nov 22 2019

Cigs: stubborn IFR/MVFR cigs hanging on through the overnight/early
morning hours. BUFKIT models, meso models relative humidity fields both suggest the
low clouds will start to diminish with mixing by mid/late morning.
Meanwhile, satellite trends continue to move the mass southeast.
Will push back clearing (again) a few hours into mid morning. Krst
could avoid more cigs as currently situated under a "hole" in the
cloud shield, but not convinced of that quite yet.

Come the afternoon and through Sat expect scattered/sky clear conditions.

Weather/vsby: no impacts expected.

Winds: northwest winds will become west and then swing to the south
by evening. Relaxing pressure gradient will lead to diminishing
speeds this morning. Winds should start to pick up a bit overnight
as pressure gradient starts to tighten back up.


Arx watches/warnings/advisories...


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