Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 161716
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
116 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019
a strong cold front with a deepening surface low will bring rain
back to the area this afternoon and tonight. Showers will
linger behind the front into Thursday as cold air streams into
the area from Canada. Warmer and dry weather will return for the
Near term /through Thursday/...
930 am update...
Little change with the latest update. Adjusted pops back
slightly for the next few hours as showers have been just a bit
slower to work into the area so far. Also, went just a degree or
so warmer with temperatures into the late morning/early
afternoon given a slightly warmer temperature trend this
Previous discussion continues below.
Strong warm air and moisture advection into the region this
morning as a warm front that is currently draped across the twin
tiers will surge northward and come through the entire area just
after sunrise. Meanwhile, a cold front will enter western New York
later this morning and will continue to push eastward into
central New York by this evening.
Showers and even some embedded thunderstorms will develop early
this afternoon out ahead of the front, but before that it will
be a decent day. As temperatures will warm into the 60s,
although winds will be gusty. Conditions will deteriorate
rapidly later this afternoon and into this evening, especially
east of the i81 corridor.
This will be due to explosive cyclogenesis of a coastal low,
where a 12-18 millibar drop could occur within a short 6 hour
window from this afternoon through this evening. How far west
the heaviest rainfall will reach will depend on the exact track
of this season's first Nor'easter. The heaviest rainfall should
occur in the eastern Catskills, as strong southeast low level flow
pushes Atlantic moisture into the Catskills and orographic
accent should enhance rainfall totals in these areas. Over 2" of
rain will certainly be possible in some locations, but if the
low takes a further east track then totals will be lower in our
region, as the deformation zone would maybe just clip the
eastern Catskills and instead have greater impacts across the
mid to upper Hudson Valley.
As mentioned in earlier discussions, the model consensus still
indicates that this deformation band of rain will setup, and
remain nearly stationary at near our eastern/northeastern zones
tonight, but some models, such as the Euro with a further west
track of the low, push the deformation zone all the way into
central New York with more widespread heavy rain further west as well.
Latest forecast rainfall from 8 am today through 8 am Thursday
is now: 0.4 to 0.75 inch west of Auburn, Ithaca and Towanda. 1
to 1.5 inches along the I-81 corridor from Syracuse to
Binghamton and Scranton. The highest totals of 2-3+ inches are
forecast be from Rome to Oneonta, Delhi, Monticello and
Strong wind gusts will also be a concern tonight across the
higher terrain as the low bombs out. Gusts should remain below
advisory criteria everywhere except our highest elevations in
the Catskills and Poconos, however, this will not warrant an
advisory due to it being localized to these areas.
Short term /Friday through Saturday/...
115 PM update...
A break in the systems for the short term. Northwest flow
continues on Friday keeping it chilly and at least mostly
cloudy. Enough instability available for a few showers,
especially in the morning. Drier air starts to filter in late
Friday and continues into Saturday clearing the skies.
Saturday will be under ridging at the surface and aloft allowing
for a good recovery in temperatures. Late in the day, a
southerly flow will develop helping the warmup.
Long term /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
115 PM update...no changes to the extended. Still looking at a
front washing out on Sunday, followed by a strengthening
southerly flow Monday into Tuesday. Late in the period another
strong cold front will be passing through the area.
415 am update...
our region will revert to ridging at the start of the weekend,
and then southwest flow into early next week. This will result
in mainly dry weather with warming temperatures.
Before the warmth however, clouds diminish Friday night as high
pressure starts to build into the area, resulting in radiational
cooling. Widespread 30s are anticipated for lows, and a frost
advisory is possible where the growing season is still active in
The Finger lakes of New York and the Wyoming Valley of nepa.
Models in good agreement for a sunny day of high pressure Saturday,
followed by southwest return flow Sunday with perhaps some high
thin clouds yet still dry. Temperatures will rise from mid 50s-
near 60 for highs Saturday, to mainly lower-mid 60s Sunday.
Operational GFS-ECMWF-Canadian models now also all keep the next
rain chances out of the region through at least Sunday night if
Rain chances start to increase Monday, but model consensus
places main focus more towards Monday night-Tuesday, during
which another amplified upper trough will try to start swinging
our way. A distant Canadian low is then projected to send a cold
front towards US Tuesday, but given the amplified nature of the
pattern it would not be surprising to see the pace of this slow
down in coming model runs.
Aviation /17z Wednesday through Sunday/...
widespread MVFR ceilings and visibility expected by this
afternoon with steady rain as a cold front comes into the area.
A strong coastal low will likely produce heavy rain east of i81
as well this afternoon and tonight with possible IFR ceilings
and visibility depending on the rainfall intensity.
Low level wind shear is still likely this morning, but surface
winds increase by mid morning with mixing and that should put an
end to low level wind shear.
Thursday into Thursday night...restrictions expected as low
pressure system wraps rain showers across the region.
Friday through Sunday...mainly VFR. Morning fog possible.