Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 231855
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
255 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019
dry weather continues into tomorrow with high pressure passing
to our south. A cold front will bring a chance of showers on
Friday, but then high pressure builds in again for the first
half of the weekend. However, although the weekend starts dry,
a low pressure system will likely bring rain Saturday night
Near term /through Thursday/...
255 PM update...
Mostly dry conditions are expected through the near term period.
Mostly clear skies is expected tonight with lows in the low to
mid 30s and lower 40s in some of the warmer spots.
Ridging will remain in our vicinity through tonight, but will
push south of the region tomorrow. A very weak short wave moves
NE out of the Great Lakes and into Ontario, but this should just
graze our far northern forecast zones. Shower chances will be
very low, but clouds will likely increase north of the twin
tiers. Otherwise a good amount of sunshine is anticipated with
warm southerly flow ahead of the trough helping push high
temperatures into the 60s.
Short term /Thursday night through Saturday/...
210 PM update...
High pressure overhead early Friday pushes east as a short wave
races east out of the lakes. This will allow showers to break
out in the afternoon, mainly over The Finger lakes, then spread
east late in the day before exiting overnight. Do not expect
more then light showers and low rainfall amounts.
High pressure builds back in briefly early Saturday ahead of a
much stronger low lifting out of the Ohio Valley. Expect
Saturday to be generally dry with increasing clouds late in the
day as the system approaches.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
210 PM update...
Little change to the long term at this update. Overall, we are
evolving into a more active pattern as a long wave trough and
major surface system develops over the Midwest. Details of the
forecast are still being resolved as the models converge on the
solution, but in general, looking a rain late in the weekend,
followed by another storm around midweek.
415 am update....
Rather significant changes in the beginning of the long term
period. Latest model guidance has come into much better
agreement that a moisture laden low pressure system will track
through the area Saturday night into Sunday. A closed upper
level low is progged to track from Arkansas northeast toward
Lake Erie...this system will tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture
bringing a strong push of warm advection stratiform rain to our
region. GFS is slightly faster than the ECMWF, but generally
went close to the latest superblend/wpc guidance for pops and quantitative precipitation forecast
this time period. Temperatures are also looking much warmer now
Saturday night (40s), with the strong warm air advection,
clouds and rain around. Lingering rain Sunday morning, looks to
exit west to east (if current timing holds). Seasonable
temperatures in the 50s.
Looking mainly dry for Monday, and seasonable with weak high
pressure building. Rather significant model differences then
reappear Tuesday/Wednesday next week. The 00z GFS brings a
strong, early season blast of cold air to the region with rain
showers and eventually lake effect snow showers. Meanwhile the
00z Canadian and European model (ecmwf) build the Southeast Ridge back, keeping the cold
air locked across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. These
solutions would also keep out weather mainly dry. For the
official forecast went close to the nbm, considering these
differences and lower confidence.
Aviation /19z Wednesday through Monday/...
some broken clouds possible through this afternoon, but they
will dissipate quickly around or just after sunset with the loss
of heating. Conditions will remain VFR, but some ceilings below
5k feet is to be expected this afternoon. Otherwise, gusty
westerly winds as high as 20 to 25 knots will ease up at this
evening. However, a low level jet of 35-45 knots will develop
out of the southwest early Thursday morning and low level wind
shear will be expected for at least a few hours through the
early to mid morning hours on Thursday.
Thursday afternoon through early Friday...VFR except for valley
fog restrictions possible at kelm late Thursday night-early
Friday afternoon through Friday night...chance of showers and
minor restrictions for the New York terminals; mainly VFR kavp.
Saturday night through Monday...rain and restrictions becoming
likely from passing low pressure system, especially Sunday
through early Monday.