Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
705 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019
a warm front will usher warmer temperatures and rain showers into
New York and PA tonight, before a cold front Friday morning brings
sharply colder air and gusty winds to the region.
Near term /through Friday night/...
630 PM update...
With the first wave of showers already starting to push across
central NY, precip chances have been adjusted forward slightly.
Heading into the rest of the night and into Friday, the main
changes have been slight adjustments in the spatial extent of
rain showers to account for this first wave - which should
primarily impact central New York - and the next, associated with the
cold front, which should begin to move through by sunrise and
allow rain showers to spread across the whole area. Otherwise,
the rest of the forecast remains on track.
Previous discussion continues below...
A series of weak warm fronts will push milder air into New York and PA
overnight, causing temperatures to rise through early morning.
Minimums will occur shortly after sunset, when a few rain showers
could mix with sleet over northern Oneida County in the colder
air. Otherwise, light showers will fall as rain through the
A strong cold front moving through New York will bring gusty winds and
cooler temperatures to our forecast area for Friday.
Temperatures will fall throughout the late morning and afternoon
hours, changing rain showers over to light snow showers.
Winds will gust between 25 and 35 mph at times from The Finger
lakes and Syracuse area toward the high terrain of our eastern
New York counties.
Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...
312 PM update...
Main forecast concerns in the short term remain focused on the
low pressure system expected to track from the Tennessee
Valley/srn appalachian mtns northeast off the New Jersey/New England
coast late Saturday into Sunday evening. A wintry mix will
spread south to north through the region during this time with
fairly mild temperatures as well.
Weather conditions Saturday morning into the early afternoon
will be quiet as high pressure dominates the region. The high
will shift quickly off the coast by the late afternoon as an
upper level trough and associated surface low rotate ewd across
Kentucky/Tennessee through the srn mid-Atlantic region later Saturday into
Saturday night. As this occurs a weak push of warm/moist air
will lift north into ern PA and ern New York and interact with weak
to moderate forcing aloft to produce a shield of light-moderate
precipitation over the southeastern portions of the forecast
There is still quite a bit of model uncertainty with regard to the
track of the low...with some guidance placing the track well off the
coast and keeping most of the area dry. At this time however,
consensus brushes at least the Poconos and srn Catskills with around
a quarter to a half of an inch of qpf. Most of this will fall
in the form of rain/snow/sleet with only a small amount of
freezing rain as well. Thermal profiles are still in question as
of this afternoon...but it does appear to be more of a
"rain/snow with pockets of sleet" event, with the threat for
freezing rain on the lower end.
The low pressure will wrap up and deepen even more off the mid/nrn
New England coast later Sunday and Sunday night with the bulk of the
significant precip out of the area and some wrap-around cold
air triggering a Few Lake enhance rain/snow showers into early
Monday morning around the Syracuse/Utica area. The cold air on
the back side of the system will not be cold enough for all snow
with 850mb temps only around -4 to -5c.
Snowfall amounts this weekend will be challenging to nail down
with this system given the potential for a mix with rain and/or
sleet at times. The fact that it will be a low-end qpf event
lean toward lower snowfall amounts as well. Temperatures during
the day this weekend will be in the 30s and 40s...with
overnight lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
lake-enhanced showers should quickly end early Monday as
surface-850 mb ridging builds in from the west. Forecast highs
in the lower to mid 40s will be near climo.
A southerly return flow develops toward midweek as high pressure
progresses off the eastern Seaboard and the next storm system moves
into the Midwest. This will lead to a modest warming trend Tuesday
and Thursday with highs ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s (5-10f
above normal). The next chance for precip looks to be Tuesday night
into Wednesday as the low cuts to our northwest (into the Great
Lakes region) and a cold front approaches from the west. A mainly
rain event is favored with this setup. Breezy southerly winds are
possible Tuesday night-Wednesday.
The chance for lake-effect snow showers returns toward the end of
the period as northwest flow Ushers in colder air.
Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions continue so far tonight, with a broken cloud
deck at around 7000 to 9000 ft. Spotty rain showers have already
begun moving through central NY, though these are not expected
to lead to any visibility restrictions. Lower clouds develop
overnight ahead of an approaching cold front, with ceilings
dropping to MVFR and fuel alternate after 9z.
In addition, a low level jet will cause low level wind shear conditions at the
majority of our terminals by 3z, continuing through early
Rain showers continue after sunrise, lingering into the
afternoon mainly at syr and rme where a mix with snow will be
possible after 16z. MVFR to fuel alternate ceilings will
continue across most terminals due to lake clouds - with the
exceptions of Elm and avp, where clouds lift to VFR and start to
break up by 18z.
Friday night...snow showers/flurries could bring restrictions,
mainly the New York terminals. Kavp perhaps an MVFR ceiling.
Saturday night through Sunday...system with snow-rain mix may
pass through the region with associated restrictions.
Monday and Tuesday...mainly VFR.