Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 131430
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
930 am EST Wed Nov 13 2019
record cold Arctic air remains over the region. Lake effect
snow gradually diminishes southeast of Lake Ontario this
morning up to about midday after dropping light fluffy
accumulations. Temperatures trend a bit milder Thursday into
Friday, yet still below average for mid November. Another blast
of cold air moves in for the first half of the weekend.
Near term /through Thursday/...
930 am update...
little change with this latest update, apart from ending lake
effect snow a touch sooner than previously forecast. Satellite
and radar still indicate lingering lake effect bands, but the
the spatial extend and intensity has definitely decreased over
the past hour with generally minor visibility restrictions where
snow showers are occurring. The rest of the forecast remains on
track so far.
Previous discussion continues below.
650 am update...
main near term issues will be the finishing out of lake effect
snow this morning southeast of Lake Ontario, as well as record
cold in place before trending slightly milder into Thursday.
Lake effect multi-bands are now stretching mainly from Penn
Yan-Ithaca-Binghamton-far northeast corner of pennslyvania areas
northward and from Skaneateles-Tully-Norwich-Sidney southward
and just into the Catskills. Though Georgian Bay was cut off
early tonight, we have up to now still been getting at least
some upstream moisture contribution from other portions of Lake
Huron. Warm air advection/thickness rises are now occurring over
Lake Huron which is ending that moisture source, and for the
rest of this morning inversion heights will be lowering while we
will be pretty much solely relying on Lake Ontario and Finger
Lakes. We are allowing remaining advisories to drop at 7am as
scheduled now that we are down to our last inch or so of
additional accumulation under the most persistent bands.
With this record cold air mass, wind chills are in the single
digits above or below zero this morning, with northwesterly
gusts still reaching 15-20 mph at times, yet thankfully winds
will slacken this afternoon with the Arctic high finally
arriving. See climate section for more details on the daily
records today. A mostly sunny sky can be expected outside of
the lake effect streamers southeast of Lake Ontario, which will
diminish with time.
West-southwest flow aloft and associated warm air advection will
send high to mid level clouds our way tonight, which after an
early evening dip in temperatures should allow some warming to
occur overnight. This will continue into Thursday with southerly
return flow in the low levels realizing highs into the mid to
upper 30s; about 8-10 degrees milder than today. A weak wave
passing aloft will attempt to cause a couple flurries in the
northern zones but with very dry air in the low levels -
dewpoints mainly in the teens - chances are it will just turn
out to be virga and thus no measurable precipitation.
Short term /Thursday night through Friday night/...
a trough over the Great Lakes will enhance lake snow potential
from western edges of the central southern tier toward the
Mohawk Valley Thursday night through Friday night.
Elsewhere, elongated high pressure extending into eastern
sections of New York and PA will keep the weather fair.
Temperatures will remain much colder than normal.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
cold high pressure sliding down from Canada on the back side of
a powerful upper level trough will bring very chilly
temperatures to New York and PA on Saturday despite increasing
sunshine. Temperatures will peak in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
High pressure will remain in control through Sunday as
temperatures rise into the upper 30s.
Another trough sliding through the Great Lakes will usher snow
showers into New York and PA for Monday and Tuesday.
Aviation /15z Wednesday through Sunday/...
lingering lake effect clouds and snow showers will still cause
intermittent visibility restrictions at kith-kbgm this morning,
and at least a higher end MVFR ceiling at times for kelm early
and back to ksyr around midday. Kavp will remain VFR. All
terminals achieve VFR this afternoon through tonight as Arctic
high pressure passes overhead. This will cause initial northwest
winds of 6-10 knots with higher gusts, to diminish later today.
Variable or light southeast winds this evening, increase to 5-8
Thursday through Friday midday...VFR.
Late Friday afternoon-evening...possible ceiling restrictions
across the New York terminals, and chance of snow showers mainly ksyr-
krme, due to a passing cold front with gusty northwest winds.
Saturday through Sunday...VFR.
a number of daily records have fallen or will fall as very cold
air mass continues to impact the region.
Record low minimums for today Wednesday 13th:
Syracuse 14/1996 (forecast is very close to that), Binghamton
14/1986 (already broken; low as of 6 am was already 12), Avoca
19/1986 (already broken; low as of 6 am was already 17).
Record low maximums for today Wednesday 13th:
Syracuse 24/1911 (will be close; forecast is 23), Binghamton
28/1977 (will easily break; forecast is 22), Avoca 28/1911 (will
be close; forecast is 28).