Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 182338
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
738 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019
high pressure will continue to slide eastward out of the Great
Lakes the remainder of today. After a cold start Saturday
morning, the weekend will be mostly sunny and mild.
Near term /through Saturday night/...
700 PM update...
no major changes made to the relatively quiet forecast this
evening. Have added some patchy fog to the valley locations late
tonight/early Saturday morning. Otherwise...quite cool tonight
across much of the region with areas of frost likely. Frost
advisory remains in effect tonight for the remaining areas
within the growing season...in the northern Finger Lakes and the
high pressure continues to slide eastward out of the Great
Lakes and will continue to do so the remainder of this
afternoon. This will result in gradual clearing skies from south
to north. Northwest winds will also quickly diminish the
remainder of this afternoon as high pressure settles in.
Expecting the majority of the area to remain in the 40s for
highs, with the exception being in portions of nepa (some lower
to mid 50s), where there is more sunshine breaking out.
Clearing skies and light winds will cause chilly temperatures
tonight into Saturday morning. The growing season remains
active over portions of The Finger lakes and Wyoming Valley.
With lows expected to get down to the lower to middle-30s by
Saturday morning, a frost advisory remains in effect in these
areas. Lower to mid 30s are also expected in areas where the
growing season has already ended, with even some upper 20s
expected in northern Oneida County.
High pressure will be in firm control on Saturday, bringing
mostly sunny skies with temperatures ranging from the lower to
mid 50s across cny, to the mid 50s-near 60 further south. This
high pressure system will move east of the area late
Saturday/Saturday night as a tropical system moves towards the
mid-Atlantic states. Expecting Saturday night to remain dry,
although clouds will be increasing from south to north. With a
light southeasterly flow along with the increasing clouds,
temperatures will not be nearly as chilly as tonight. Lows are
expected to be in the lower 30s to lower 40s.
Short term /Sunday through Sunday night/...
215 PM update...
The question this period is how far north the rain gets ahead of
a tropical system moving northeast through the mid Atlantic
states. The track is similar to yesterday. Northward extent of
the rain is also similar but now the NAM GOES out in time
further and gets US wet more in line with the still wet Euro.
The Canadian and GFS continue to be dry. Kept the previous
forecast of only Sunday afternoon/early evening slight chance
pops in northeast PA and Sullivan County New York. Less of a question
is the clouds which will make it across the entire area. This
will keep temperatures cooler. Highs from the mid 50s in the
Catskills to the low 60s in The Finger lakes. A narrow ridge of
high pressure builds in Sunday night. With light winds and
partly cloudy skies temperatures will fall to around 40.
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
2 PM update...
An upper ridge in the northeast U.S. On Monday. This before a
deep upper trough moves in midweek. A strong surface low tracks
northeast from the Midwest through the western Great Lakes into
northern Ontario. An occluded front will move through our area
with showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. Models have slowed a few
more hours but not as much as previous days. Ahead of this
front and lifting upper level trough will be a deep southwest
flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitable water is
expected to be over one inch and be 2 to 3 Standard deviations
above normal. With the jet support this could be another 1 to 2
inch rain event. With the rain this week, the flood potential
will need to be watched. Highs near average and around 60
A broad but not deep upper level trough will be over the area
Wednesday and Thursday. A westerly flow of cold air will create
lake enhanced showers across our northern counties east of lakes
Erie and Ontario. Cooler with highs in the 50s and lows mid 30s
to mid 40s.
High pressure is expected across the mid Atlantic states
Thursday and Friday which should push highs back to around 60
Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through at least 00z
Sunday. The one exception may be at kelm, where some fog/mist
may form late tonight/early Saturday morning. That being said,
there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding if this will
occur or not. Some model guidance indicates a possible MVFR
deck of clouds developing near kelm. Should this occur, the
potential for fog/mist would decrease. For now went with
occasional MVFR visibility restrictions between 10z and 13z.
This will continue to be monitored for changes for the upcoming
06z set of tafs.
Winds for the first half of the night will be northwesterly at
less than 5 knots, then becoming light and variable for the
remainder of the taf period as high pressure takes firm control.
Saturday evening through Monday...mainly VFR. Morning valley
Monday night through Wednesday...restrictions possible in
PA...frost advisory until 10 am EDT Saturday for paz044-047.
New York...frost advisory until 10 am EDT Saturday for nyz015>018.