Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 222026
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
326 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019
lake effect rain and snow showers, changing to scattered snow
showers along with breezy and cooler conditions are expected
this afternoon and evening behind a departing cold front.
High pressure then builds in, along with cold and dry weather
tonight and Saturday. A system could bring a brief wintry mix to
the area Saturday night into Sunday.
Near term /through Saturday/...
main story the remainder of this afternoon will be scattered
lake effect rain and snow showers behind a departing cold front,
mainly in central New York. Temperatures continue to fall into
the 30s for the majority of the area with some 40s remaining in
portions of nepa and some valley locations in cny. This trend
will continue the remainder of this afternoon as temperatures
drop to the lower to mid 30s by sunset. This will allow any mix
of rain and snow showers transition to scattered snow showers by
the evening. It will be breezy as well, with sustained winds of
15-25 mph and gusts occasionally reaching 40 mph.
Scattered lake effect snow showers linger in the evening across
portions of central New York. Outside of the snow
showers/flurries it will be partly cloudy to start, with
clearing overnight. Any snow accumulations will likely be under
an inch. Any lingering snow showers should end after midnight as
high pressure begins to move in. Winds diminish rather quickly
during the evening, dropping under 10 mph after midnight. Lows
will likely be in the 20s across the majority of the area.
A mostly sunny day is in store for Saturday as high pressure
briefly take control. Higher clouds will move in from the
southwest late in the afternoon ahead of the next system. Highs
will likely be in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Short term /Saturday night through Monday/...
325 PM update...
main concerns in the short term remain centered around the area
of low pressure expected to move from the mid-Atlantic region
Saturday night to near Nova Scotia Monday morning, and bring a
wintry mix of rain/snow and possibly sleet and freezing rain to
portions of NE PA and central New York.
This winter system will start out as a fairly disorganized
surface low near the Kentucky/WV/VA area, and as it track to the E/NE
off the East Coast, the associated upper trough will swing
through srn New England and become negatively tilted. There
will be some enhancement of the precip shield as it lifts to the
north across ern PA and into south-central and southeastern New York
Saturday night. However, given the fact that there is not much
baroclinicity with this system, and it appears to be fairly
progressive with an open wave aloft...the deep moisture will
have a hard time wrapping into and around the system. This will
keep most of the moderate to brief heavy precip on the front
end of the system at least initially when impacting central New York
and NE PA. As the system tracks further north, it may be capable
of throwing some precip back to the west, but will be well east
of our area by that time.
The thermal structure with this system is expected to be rather
broad with only a brief period where there is a warm layer aloft
Saturday night/Sunday morning at any one time/location over a
sub-freezing surface layer as the main precip shield brushes NE
PA, north to the Binghamton area into the srn Catskills. Will
likely be mainly a rain/snow mix event, with brief period of ice
pellets and light freezing rain before 10 am Sunday morning.
The rain/snow mix will taper off and become mainly a light rain
scenario through Sunday afternoon. Higher elevations will likely
see greater chances for snow accumulations around 1-2 inches.
While other locations at lower elevations will see lower snow
amounts around 1 inch or less. The warmer temperatures and
threat for rain mixing in at times will cut back on snow
accumulation significantly. The greatest threat for icing will
be from the Poconos into the srn Catskills...ice accum will be
generally less than a tenth of an inch.
Travel conditions may be hazardous along I-84 (higher
elevations), I-81 (between Binghamton and scranton), I-88 and
New York rte 17 Sunday morning. However, there is still some
uncertainty with this system. So, will hold off an any winter
headlines at this time and try to get a better handle on the
forecast with the next set of model guidance.
Temperatures will range from upper 20s to lower 30s Saturday
night...but warm into the upper 30s and lower 40s Sunday
Slightly cooler temperatures will filter in behind the
departing low pressure system Sunday night into Monday...which
will allow for some lake enhanced rain/snow showers across the
far nrn counties into Monday morning. Available moisture will be
fairly limited, so precip amounts will be light north of the
Weak ridging and modest warm air advection will begin during
the day Monday, which will allow the winds to back to the E/se
and end any remaining showers across the north. The rising
heights aloft will also act to suppress any chances for precip
and keep weather conditions dry. There is a weak embedded wave
expected to track quickly east through the area late Monday, but
will likely only act to increase high/mid level cloud cover.
High temperatures on Monday will climb into the lower to mid
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
southerly flow continues through Tuesday in advance of the next
significant weather system with mild temperatures. Highs
Tuesday could exceed 50f is a few areas on brisk south winds.
For Tuesday night and Wednesday, a major cyclone deepens over
the Great Lakes with New York and PA with strong southerly winds and
strong moisture advection. Probabilities for showers will
increase Tuesday night and Wednesday. Then as the strong low
passes east across northern New England strong cold air
advection will dominate our weather for Wednesday night and
Thanksgiving day. Strong north winds will keep temperatures
chilly for Thanksgiving day with highs in the 30s and low 40s.
For Friday we will keep chances for mainly snow showers or
flurries mixing with rain/sprinkles in our warmer valleys given
the uncertainities in timing W/ this next major system. As it
stands now, this storm doesn't look like it will have any major
impact on our forecast area for the Thanksgiving Holiday and
travel as well. Stay tuned as this could change.
Aviation /18z Friday through Wednesday/...
mainly MVFR conditions are expected this afternoon with
occasional lake effect rain and snow showers, mainly across
central New York. These occasional showers may bring brief
visibility restrictions as well. That being said, a few
exceptions to the mainly MVFR conditions exist. Krme may see a
few hours of fuel alternate ceilings between 19z and 22z. Kelm
will likely remain VFR. Kavp will likely become VFR after 19z or
so. Conditions should then improve to VFR for all terminals by
this evening, with the exception being at krme, where MVFR
ceilings are expected to persist most of the night. VFR
conditions are then expected at all terminals Saturday morning
into the early afternoon.
Behind the cold front, winds have shifted to a west-
northwesterly direction and will be gusty this afternoon with
gusts of 25-35 knots expected. Winds gradually diminish after
sunset this evening, back below 15 knots, then eventually
shifting to westerly and becoming light overnight. Winds shift
to a more southwesterly direction Saturday morning into the
Saturday afternoon...VFR conditions expected.
Saturday night through Sunday...a system with a snow-rain mix
may pass through the region with associated restrictions.
Monday and Tuesday...mainly VFR.
Wednesday...a system bringing rain may pass through the region
with associated restrictions.