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fxus65 kbou 140206 
afdbou

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
806 PM MDT sun Oct 13 2019

Update...
issued at 805 PM MDT sun Oct 13 2019

Another quite night with only minor adjustments
needed overnight.

&&

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 217 PM MDT sun Oct 13 2019

Quiet weather will continue tonight with ridging overhead. Low
temperatures will be around normal with partly cloudy skies.

A shortwave trough will move across the northern rockies to the
North Plains on Monday with a surface cyclone moving across the
same areas. This will help to increase westerly winds over our
forecast area. Moisture values will only increase slightly so no
precipitation is expected. The biggest concern will be fire
weather due to the dry conditions and moderate winds. Two areas
will be in focus tomorrow. South Park will see minimum relative
humidities in the mid teens with gusts around 25 mph during the
afternoon. Since conditions are marginal for a red flag warning
and that area just received snow on Thursday, it was decided to
not go with a red flag warning at this time. The other area of
concern is the northern Colorado border along the Cheyenne Ridge
as relative humidities will reach as low as 10 percent. The
questionable factor here will be the winds as they will likely
gust above 25 mph within a few miles of the Colorado/Wyoming border. The
spatial extent of the winds may not be large enough to cover over
half of the fire weather zones so a red flag warning will not be
issued at this time there. If forecasters tonight or tomorrow
morning see a trend toward drier and windier conditions, a red
flag warning may be needed. Otherwise, highs will be 5 to 10
degrees above normal.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 117 PM MDT sun Oct 13 2019

|an upper trof and associated cold front will move across northeast
Colorado Monday night and early Tuesday. This will result in
cooler temperatures for Tuesday afternoon across the plains. The
airmass will remain dry so no precipitation will accompany the
front but there may be some low clouds and stratus on the plains
Tuesday morning.

High pressure ridge aloft will rebuild back into the region on Wednesday
as temperatures rebound back into the 70s across the plains. The
ridge shifts into the Central Plains on Thursday as the flow aloft
shifts southwest over Colorado in advance of a weak upper trof.
This weak disturbance and another frontal boundary will slip south
over the region on Friday with cooler temperatures. There will
also be a slight chance of showers over the mountains with some
upper jet support. There will be gusty winds at times across the
mountains through the week with the varying amounts of westerly
flow.

For the weekend there is a stronger trof which will be in the
region but long range players are all over the board on how this
evolves with timing and amplitude. Both GFS/European solutions
deepen the low over the Central Plains while the Canadian run is
much further south into New Mexico. For now, a chance of rain or
snow and cooler temperatures as would expect a lot more variations
in the days to come.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 805 PM MDT sun Oct 13 2019

Southeast winds will gradually become south to southwest
by 05z and continue overnight.

&&

Bou watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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