Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 kbtv 142014 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
414 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

a weak, mainly dry cold front will swing through the area this
evening with little fanfare. High pressure briefly returns for
Tuesday before stronger low pressure and steadier rainfall
arrive by later Wednesday into Thursday. Some of the rain may
fall heavily at times, though uncertainty remains on exact
amounts and areal placement.


Near term /through Tuesday night/...
as of 315 PM EDT Monday...a weak cold front continues to
progress steadily eastward into the forecast area as of mid-
afternoon. Despite increasing cloud cover moisture is rather
limited along the boundary and only lower-end, spotty chances
for a few light showers or sprinkles will be maintained across
northern counties through early evening. By later tonight the
front will push well east allowing shortwave ridging to build
into the area with skies becoming gradually clear in the pre-
dawn hours. Low temperatures a blend of bias-corrected MOS data
- mainly 30s to locally around 40 in the Champlain Valley.

Aforementioned high then bridges atop and east of the area
during Tuesday/Tuesday night. Tuesday should feature mostly
sunny skies and light winds with afternoon temperature maxima
topping out in the 50s. Tuesday night lows should run similar to
tonight's readings, though tend to level off from the Champlain
Valley west after midnight as low level flow trends light
southerly over time.


Short term /Wednesday through Wednesday night/...
as of 400 PM EDT Monday...surface low pressure system will
track from the northeastern Great Lakes area into Ontario on
Wednesday. Later in the day Wed, a secondary low forms off the
Delmarva coast, eventually becoming the deeper of the two lows.
GFS continues to be a bit of an outlier with a track further
west. Other global models continue to show the coastal low
tracking inside the benchmark and then north into New Hampshire.
Strong pressure gradient in place ahead of this system on Wed,
will have strong gusty winds through the first half of the day.
Precipitation will begin from west to east during the second
half of the day Wed. Still some uncertainty with how much the
low along the coast deepens, and it's track. It continues to
look like best chance for heavy rain will be across southern and
eastern Vermont. An inch to an inch and a half of rain is
anticipated, and up to two inches is not out of the question.
Somewhere should get a good dump of rain with strong
frontogeneticforcing with low possibly bombing out off the New
England coast. As coastal surface low lifts northeastward,
upper level low will drop in behind it and cold air will be
enough to change over some of the rain showers to snow showers
over the higher elevations.


Long term /Thursday through Monday/...
as of 410 PM EDT Monday...wrap around showers will continue on
Thursday into Thursday night. Should be cold enough for some
snow showers in the higher elevations of Vermont and northern New York.
Upper level trough will be overhead with decent short wave
energy as well. Showers will taper off early Friday morning.
Surface and upper level ridges will then be over the region from
Friday through Sunday, should be a nice weekend. Looking ahead
to next the weather looks pretty active with next system to
bring next chance for showers on Monday and possibly a large
scale system for mid-week.


Aviation /20z Monday through Saturday/...
through 18z Tuesday...VFR conditions expected through the
forecast period. Broken/overcast cigs generally in the 050-100 above ground level range
expected into the 00-06z time frame with mainly dry frontal
passage, trending mainly sky clear by 12z Tuesday as high pressure
builds atop the region. Winds mainly south to southwesterly and
occasional gusty at selected terminals through 21z, trending
westerly and abating to 5 kts or less overnight, then light and
variable after 12z Tuesday.


Tuesday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Wednesday: VFR. Likely rain.
Wednesday night: mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
ra, likely rain showers.
Thursday: mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely rain showers.
Thursday night: mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
rain showers.
Friday: mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. No sig weather.
Friday night: mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. No sig weather.
Saturday: VFR. No sig weather.


Btv watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations