Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
624 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019
a cold front is now east of the forecast area, with drier and
cooler air beginning to push into the region. Dry high
pressure will dominate Wednesday and Thursday. The chance for
rain will return Friday with another storm system.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
cold front now pushing east of the cwa. With drier air now
moving into the area, chance for any rainfall has now also
exited off to the east. Winds will remain around 10 mph through
sunset, then slowly diminish to between 5 and 10 mph overnight.
Temperatures will be significantly cooler, with lows in the mid
40s to around 50 degrees across much of the area.
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday/...
Canadian high pressure will provide typical late October Fall
weather with mostly clear skies. Forecast highs will be in the low
to mid 70s and lows in the 40s.
Clouds are expected to increase on Friday with an upper trough
digging into the lower Mississippi River valley. An increase in low
level moisture may result in a chance of showers in the csra and
western midlands late in the day.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
forecast models offer very different solutions for this weekend into
the middle of next week. The models radically differ with the
evolution of two potent upper troughs in terms of positioning,
amplitude, and how they interact with each other. The model
consensus calls for an unsettled and cloudy forecast period with
scattered to numerous showers this weekend with the first upper
trough. Left slight chance to chance pops in a low confidence
forecast for Monday through Tuesday with an uncertain track of the
second upper trough.
Aviation /22z Tuesday through Sunday/...
VFR. Cold front has pushed through the region. Surface wind speeds
are expected to decrease around dusk and gradually veer from west to north
overnight into Wednesday. Drier air filtering into the region
behind the front will ensure VFR conditions through the 24 hour taf
Extended aviation outlook...no significant impacts to aviation
through Thursday. Deteriorating conditions late Thursday night
through Sunday with the next weather system.