Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcle 171711
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
1211 PM EST sun Nov 17 2019
..18z aviation forecast update...
high pressure extending into the area will weaken across the
area today as low pressure moves into the western Great Lakes
region. Monday, the low will continue slowly east across the
Great Lakes. A weak front will move across the area Monday and
Monday night. High pressure will build back in for the middle of
Near term /through tonight/...
no changes were made with the mid morning near term forecast
update. The weather will remain quiet today with high level
cloudiness increasing late in the day.
high pressure centered from northern New England to Quebec will
drift east today, loosing its grip on the area as low pressure
moves into the western Great Lakes. A cold front extends south
from the low to Texas. Aloft, models show an elongated trough
digging ESE across the central and northern plains. The cold
front will move east across the area with the upper tough
beginning Monday afternoon.
Expect today to begin sunny with mid and high level clouds
increasing from the west mainly during the afternoon as moisture
increases ahead of the approaching front and upper trough.
Moisture however will be limited as will any significant
forcing. As a result, models show fairly low pops for Monday
with most locations a slight chance or less. For now will limit
pops to a low chance in nwrn PA Monday afternoon and slight
chance across northeast Ohio. Highs today and Monday mostly 40 to
Short term /Monday through Wednesday night/...
the periods begins Monday night with a positively tilted
shortwave lifting northeast out of the upper Ohio Valley region
into New England Tuesday. West/northwest flow will persist
behind this trough, with decent low level moisture and colder
air aloft moving across the region Tuesday, with a period of
lake effect precip across the snow belt Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Main limiting factor for lake effect is marginal
925-700mb temperature, with the NAM depicting a bit colder air
and better lapse rates. Will opt for chance/slight chance pops
through Tuesday, with a period of slight chance pops everywhere
Tuesday as the thermal trough passes with some mid level forcing
moving into the region from the northwest as another shortwave
approaches the area. This wave will move southeast through the
Great Lakes late Tuesday through Tuesday night, with another
uptick in lake effect/lake enhanced pops through Tuesday night
with another brief shot of colder air aloft. High pressure will
build northeast through the Ohio Valley Tuesday night into
Wednesday, bringing a slow end to lake effect precip through the
day Wednesday as warm air advection ramps up across the region in southwest
flow. The ridge will move east of the area Wednesday night as
deepening low pressure track northeast into the Great Lakes,
however any precip should hold off across the local area until
Thursday morning. Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 30s to low
40s, and will warm into the mid/upper 40s on Wednesday.
Long term /Thursday through Saturday/...
deepening low pressure will track northeast through the Great
Lakes into Quebec Thursday into Friday, forcing a cold front
east across the region Thursday night. Models are in better
agreement with this system and the timing of the front, which
warrants likely/Cat pops across the area. Lake effect precip
will linger Friday into Friday night with northwest flow and a
secondary shortwave tracking southeast through the Great Lakes.
High pressure will nose eastward across the area Friday night
through Saturday as low pressure moves east through the
Tennessee/Ohio valleys. This should keep the area dry for the
first part of the weekend. Highs trending a bit warmer on
Thursday with low/mid 50s expected. Highs Friday/Saturday will
be in the low 40s.
Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/...
VFR conditions are expected for all taf sites for the next 24 to
30 hours. High and mid level cloudiness will be on the increase
during the taf period but ceilings will remain between 10k and
25k feet with no aviation impacts. Winds will be light and
variable for the most part with a light southerly or
southeasterly wind around 5 knots for the eastern Ohio area into
northwest Pennsylvania. Erie will hold on to some elevated winds with
downsloping up to 10 to 12 knots this afternoon.
Outlook...non-VFR possible with scattered light rain and snow
showers Monday night into Tuesday.
quiet conditions on the lake today through Monday with light
southerly flow as high pressure moves east out of the Great
Lakes. A weak trough/cold front will move east across the lake
Monday night, with winds becoming westerly 10-15 kts Tuesday
into Wednesday. High pressure briefly returns over the lake
Wednesday and Wednesday night before low pressure tracks through
the Central Lakes on Thursday, with a warm front lifting north
across the lake followed quickly by a cold front Thursday night.
South/southwest winds will ramp up Thursday 10-20 kts, becoming
westerly to northwesterly Thursday night.