Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kcrp 200227
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
927 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019
Atmosphere moistened up across the coastal Bend today induced by
a weak short wave that crossed the area this afternoon. Pwats are up to
1.66 inches with moisture confined primarly to the lowest 700
mbs. Meanwhile a weak sfc boundary is forecast to settle into
S-central Texas overnight which will cause sfc winds to become light
and variable across our forecast area. Despite the increased low
level moisture, fog is still likely given the light winds and
mostly clear skies. Sref is also indicating 50% probability of
fog forming late tonight. This is well covered in the forecast for
tonight and thus no changes are expected.
Tides update: we are approaching a high tide cycle and water
levels are rising. Bob Hall pier was showing 2.6 ft mean sea level at 9pm
with another hour and half until high tide. The webcam at padre
bali park (white cap) indicated water approaching the dunes
already. Will maintain the coastal Flood Warning for tonight.
Previous discussion... /issued 639 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/
See 00z taf discussion below.
Weak onshore flow is expected overnight with MVFR ceilings
developing after midnight and persisting through Sunday morning.
Patchy dense fog is again possible across the inland coastal
plains impacting terminals from kali-kbea-kvct. Fog should
dissipate by 13z sun. Moisture increases on Sunday with mostly
cloudy skies continuing across the coastal Bend. MVFR ceilings in
the morning will become VFR ceilings in the afternoon. A few
showers will also be possible across the inland coastal plains.
Onshore winds will also increase as the pressure gradient
tightens with gusts near 20 knots possible in the afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 418 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/
Short term (tonight through Sunday night)...
Very warm across the area this afternoon under generally mostly
sunny skies. Temperatures are currently ranging from the mid 80s
along the coast to the mid 90s inland, with heat indices in the
upper 90s to low 100s. A weak frontal boundary is making its way
across the Texas Hill country this afternoon and is expected to
approach south Texas from the north tonight and then stall. This
boundary may trigger a few showers late tonight into early Sunday
morning across the Victoria Crossroads area. A mid to upper level
trough across the western U.S. Is expected to track eastward into
the Central Plains on Sunday, allowing for moisture from the
eastern Pacific and southwestern Gulf to advect into the region.
Pwats are progged to increase to around 2.2-2.4 inches across the
coastal waters by Sunday night. Therefore, rain chances will
increase towards the end of the short-term period, with showers
and thunderstorms likely. Otherwise, another warm day is in store
for south Texas on Sunday, with high temperatures in the upper
80s to mid 90s and a moderate southerly flow. Winds will increase
on Sunday evening ahead of an approaching boundary on Monday, and
scec conditions are likely to develop across the waters.
A coastal Flood Warning has been issued for the coastal waters
south of Port Aransas, and it will be in effect from 8 PM tonight
through 8 am Sunday morning. Moderate coastal flooding is expected
during time of high tide with tide levels nearing 3 feet above
mean sea level or higher (2 feet inundation) along the southern
coastal waters. A coastal flood advisory will remain in effect
through 8 am Sunday across the remaining coastal zones.
Short term (monday through Saturday night)...
Monday opens with the base of a broad upper trough migrating across
Texas accompanied by a decent cold front. Models are in fair
agreement with this front reaching south Texas by midday before
clearing the region by sunset. In advance of the front, the primary
moist axis with pwats over 2 inches is forecast to linger just
offshore for much of the day, with some of this deeper moisture
through 700 mb extending west through the coastal plains. As a
result, likely pops continue to favor the eastern 1/3 of the
forecast area. Precip chances should end abruptly behind the front
as pwats crater to 1/4 inch or less by daybreak Tuesday. Seasonably
cool surface ridging will linger through Tuesday night before return
flow ensues beginning Wednesday. Improving cyclonic southwest flow
aloft by Thursday should improve rain chances a touch until stronger
forcing, sharper height falls and a stronger cold front deliver
better rain chances Thursday night ahead of markedly drier air and
unseasonably cool conditions for Friday into next weekend.
A weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through Sunday. The
combination of an upper level disturbance and increasing moisture
will contribute to isolated showers and thunderstorms Sunday into
Sunday night. Winds will increase to scec levels Sunday night
ahead of an approaching boundary. A cold front will push offshore
Monday afternoon and evening accompanied by scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms. Small Craft Advisory conditions are
likely Monday night through Tuesday night from moderate to
occasionally strong northeast flow. Moderate onshore flow will
return Wednesday through Thursday until a strong cold front
arrives Thursday night. Drier conditions Tuesday will give way to
isolated showers and storms by Wednesday night with even better
chances expected Thursday night.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 74 89 76 87 64 / 10 20 40 60 10
Victoria 71 89 73 85 56 / 20 20 40 60 10
Laredo 73 94 75 89 62 / 10 10 20 20 0
Alice 72 93 75 89 61 / 10 20 30 50 10
Rockport 76 87 78 85 67 / 20 20 50 60 10
Cotulla 70 94 74 89 57 / 10 10 20 20 0
Kingsville 73 92 76 89 63 / 10 20 30 50 10
Navy corpus 77 85 78 84 69 / 10 20 50 60 20
Texas...coastal flood advisory until 8 am CDT Sunday for the following
zones: Aransas islands...Calhoun islands...coastal
Aransas...coastal Calhoun...coastal Kleberg...coastal
Nueces...coastal San Patricio.
High rip current risk until 8 am CDT Sunday for the following
zones: Aransas islands...Calhoun islands...Kleberg
Coastal Flood Warning until 8 am CDT Sunday for the following
zones: Kleberg islands...Nueces islands.