Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kcrp 212050
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
250 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019
An upper level low over The Four Corners will shift east across
the Great Plains through Friday night sending a cold front through
Friday afternoon. While the low level jet will weaken some
tonight, it may provide enough support for isolated showers
overnight. Lows tonight will be mild, in the 60s. A cold front
currently stretching from Oklahoma through West Texas will
approach south Texas tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will range
from the mid 70s to low 80s ahead of the front. Models show precip
along the front weakening it moves through south Texas. Have kept
a slight chance of showers for most of the coastal Bend but
limited 30-40% pops and isolated thunder to the Victoria
Crossroads. Northerly winds behind the front will generally be
weak inland but will be moderate over the bays and coastal waters.
Expect showers to decrease through Friday night as the front moves
offshore. Lows will fall to the upper 40s to mid 50s Friday
night, which are actually normal temperatures for this time of
Long term (saturday through thursday)...
Early in the long term period we will be under the influence of
surface high pressure and a quasi-zonal mid level flow. Mid level
energy should remain to our north to help keep our weather quiet.
Cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of friday's cold front.
High temperatures will be in the lower 70s for most of the area with
plenty of sunshine. We'll be a bit breezy in the east early, but a
generally pleasant day not only Saturday, but into Sunday.
Temperatures should be a couple of degrees warmer, but we'll keep
mostly sunny skies. The surface ridge shift to the east on Sunday
which will allow onshore flow to redevelop by late in the day.
A limited amount of moisture is expected early next week despite the
onshore flow. Pwats remain mainly below normal, though we could
start getting a bit of moisture pooling later Tuesday before our
next front comes through. Rain chances look to be slight chance at
best at this point, and that is mainly northeast. Would expect
another cool down behind this front, though it is not as clear cut
as other fronts have been due to questions in cloud cover and the
potential for a coastal trough to develop. A coastal trough would
keep slight chance...to even chance pops in the forecast as well as
more cloud cover and thus cooler temperatures. The drier European model (ecmwf)
solution would result in slightly warmer temps. For now trending
cooler than previous forecasts, but not as cold as some guidance
Expect moderate southerly flow to prevail through tonight before
weakening Friday morning ahead of a late-day cold front. Following
isolated showers tonight, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop on Friday and linger through Friday
night. Moderate offshore flow is expected Friday night, but should
stay just below advisory criteria. Scec conditions persist
through Saturday morning before a decrease to light winds. Weak
onshore flow returns Sunday night. Winds will increase to moder
moderate levels by Tuesday ahead of the next cold front. At this
time mainly scec conditions are expected ahead of the front, but
Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible behind the front with a stronger
offshore flow. Rain chances will be mainly 20 to 30 percent
Tuesday through Wednesday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 68 79 55 70 54 / 20 20 10 0 0
Victoria 66 78 49 69 48 / 20 40 20 0 0
Laredo 67 80 55 73 55 / 20 10 0 0 0
Alice 67 82 54 73 52 / 20 20 10 0 0
Rockport 68 77 54 69 56 / 20 30 20 0 0
Cotulla 65 78 51 73 51 / 20 20 0 0 0
Kingsville 68 82 56 73 53 / 20 20 10 0 0
Navy corpus 69 76 57 68 59 / 20 20 20 10 0