Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kcrp 162317 aaa
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
517 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019
Updated for the 00z aviation discussion.
Moisture returns through the night and Sunday. This will result
in patchy fog development between 06z-14z inland with MVFR to
possible IFR visibilities. Otherwise, VFR is expected. Will also
expect low level clouds to increase in coverage through Sunday.
General light southeast flow expected through the period, with a
more light and variable flow from cot-lrd toward 18z ahead of an
approaching weak front.
Previous discussion... /issued 238 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019/
A mid and upper level ridge has brought a pleasant day our way. Mild
temperatures, clear skies, and light winds will continue through the
evening. Winds continue to shift to the southeast as the surface
high pressure shifts, returning low level moisture will aid in the
development of some patchy fog inland tonight.
Clouds will increase Sunday ahead of a decaying cold front that will
move into the area Sunday night. Little to no precipitation is
expected with this as moisture will still remain limited. There will
not be a noticeable drop in temperature, but continued light winds
will shift back to the north.
Long term (monday through saturday)...
An upper trough is predicted to move across the eastern Continental U.S.
Monday/Tuesday while another upper system moves/develops across the
northern/Central Plains/Midwest Thursday/Friday. In response, onshore
flow/increasing moisture expected Tuesday/Wednesday (gfs predicts
precipitable water values near normal over the County Warning Area by Wednesday.) In response to
the foregoing second upper disturbance, a frontal boundary is
predicted to enter the County Warning Area Thursday night/Friday. The combination of
upper jet dynamics/frontal boundary/moisture is expected to increase
the chance for convection Wednesday night through Friday. However,
the GFS moves the front across the County Warning Area while the European model (ecmwf) stalls the
boundary. Thus, the GFS predicts much drier (and below normal precipitable water
values) Friday night/Saturday than the European model (ecmwf). Will retain a slight
chance of shower activity Saturday given jet dynamics in both nwp
model runs Saturday and uncertainty regarding moisture content.
Light easterly flow will continue to shift to the southeast tonight
into Sunday as high pressure shifts east of the area. A weak frontal
boundary will move off the coast Sunday night, resulting in offshore
flow. Winds will remain weak to moderate. A few isolated showers
will be possible along the front over the offshore waters. Increasing
chance for shower activity Wednesday night/Thursday owing to
increasing moisture. Anticipate that increasing upper
forcing/approaching frontal boundary/greater moisture will
contribute to scattered convection Thursday/Friday. Isolated
showers may occur Saturday owing to upper jet dynamics and
uncertainty regarding moisture content.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 52 75 54 74 55 / 0 0 10 0 0
Victoria 45 72 48 72 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
Laredo 51 74 53 75 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alice 49 77 53 77 54 / 0 0 10 0 0
Rockport 56 73 55 72 59 / 0 0 10 10 0
Cotulla 47 71 49 74 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 51 76 54 76 54 / 0 0 10 0 0
Navy corpus 56 73 57 71 61 / 0 10 10 10 0