Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kctp 140545
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
145 am EDT Mon Oct 14 2019
dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue across
the region through Tuesday. A strong frontal system will bring a
period of rain to the area on Wednesday followed by cooler and
blustery weather to end the work week. The early outlook for
next weekend looks dry with moderating temperatures.
Near term /until 8 am this morning/...
clouds over the southeast are sticking in place and should for a few
more hours. The clouds look like they will eventually lift
northeastward, but will delay the cooling there. A patch of mid
clouds will soon slide over the northwest as an upper wave pushes in,
but it will likely thin some as it does so. Still, that may
have an effect on the temps and any chance for fog there.
Elsewhere, clear skies with light winds will allow temperatures
to drop into the low 40s and also allow patchy to form,
especially in the middle Susquehanna and lower West Branch
valley. The valleys of the south-central counties, especially
Franklin County, could also see a blanket of fog by morning.
Short term /8 am this morning through 6 PM Tuesday/...
any clouds across the east will quickly retreat to the
northeast. Clouds across the northwest will spread more to the southeast and
get thicker. Patchy fog will gradually dissipate, giving way to
sunshine and breezy conditions for most of the commonwealth. A
few light showers are possible across the far northern tier as
the thickest clouds push east from the Warm Lake. Farther
south, mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures are
expected to start the work week.
Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
high pressure continues Monday night and Tuesday as a low
pressure system begins to move towards the area. The front will
bring a rapid increase in clouds and probability of precipitation late Tuesday with the
main impacts in the form or rain showers for the region on
Wednesday. Showers will move east of the area on Wednesday night
with cooler and blustery conditions on Thursday. As is typical
from here going forward, there will be some showers across the
northern tier and higher elevations. After a couple cool days,
temperatures will moderate significantly on Saturday.
Aviation /06z Monday through Friday/...
at 06z, the MVFR deck of low clouds over the lower susq valley
is slowly clearing from west to east. The main aviation concern
overnight will become the possibility of fog across the eastern
half of the forecast area, the result of an increasingly moist
southerly flow and cooling temps. Model guidance supports IFR
conditions developing across the susq valley from kipt down to
kmdt and klns. Drier air is in place farther to the west, and
there is high confidence of VFR conditions through the night at
Any low cigs/fog over the eastern half of the commonwealth
should mix out shortly after 12z Monday, leaving widespread VFR
conds for the remainder of Monday over most of central PA.
However, can't rule out tempo MVFR cigs across the northwest
mountains (kbfd) associated with moisture flowing off of Lake
Tue...am valley fog likely across north PA.
Wed...rain/low cigs likely.
Thu...gusty west-northwest winds; lingering MVFR poss mainly N/W.
Fri...no sig wx expected.