Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kctp 142206
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
606 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019
high pressure overhead will last until a strong frontal system
moves through on Wednesday. Cooler and blustery weather will
follow for the latter half of the work week. The upcoming
weekend looks dry with temperatures moderating to near normal or
even slightly above normal.
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
quiet conditions this evening with afternoon breeze waning as we
start to decouple. Low clouds over the north central mountains up to
the PA/New York border will scatter out later this evening, with
mostly clear skies expected elsewhere.
With the mainly clear sky and the high centered right overhead,
we'll likely see a little fog in the West Branch and middle
susq River Valley. Will just mention patchy fog there for now.
Temps should be slightly milder than sun am, so the frost should
not be as extensive as that morning. But, we may issue a frost
advy for a few counties. See climo section below.
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through 6 PM Tuesday/...
any valley fog in the morning will burn off in an hour or two
after sunrise. The wind will stay rather light in the east, but
will start to pick up from the south as the center of the high
moves to our east. A slight jet streak aloft may allow for some
high clouds in the morning, but these should slide NE thru the
morning, and more sun should be had in the aftn. Temps look like
they will work out to be very close to today, despite 800 mb temps
being a few deg c warmer, as we should only be mixing to about
3kft. Looks like another normal mid-October day.
Long term /Tuesday night through Monday/...
an approaching cold front and thin ribbon of near 1 inch pwats
will bring a rapid increase in clouds and probability of precipitation Tuesday night into
Wednesday with the main impacts in the form or rain showers for
the region on Wednesday. Showers will move east of the area on
Wednesday night with cooler and blustery conditions on Thursday.
As is typical from here going forward, there will be some daily
showers across the northern tier and higher elevations with
northwest flow. After a couple cool days, temperatures will
moderate significantly on Saturday and Sunday before next shot
of more widespread rain arrives by Monday.
Aviation /22z Monday through Saturday/...
some MVFR clouds will brush bfd this aftn, and an isold shower
may get close, but don't think the vsby will come down at all.
The flow will slacken and back a little this evening, and help
push the lower clouds away to the north. The light/calm wind
will allow valley fog to form again around kipt. Kbfd may get a
little fog at first tonight, but clear out before 09-10z.
Otherwise, sky clear and good vsby. There may be a little fog
vcty unv/aoo, but this is a much lower prob than ipt, so will
leave it out for those other locations. The fog will go away by
Under high pressure, Tuesday looks like only some cirrus
overhead in the morning, with gradual clearing in the aftn.
Then, clouds return/thicken/lower from the west tues night as a
frontal system moves in from the west. Expect widespread
clouds/rain and vis restrictions late tues night west and area-
wide on Wednesday. The cold front will make a big change in
temps and it will get gusty for the latter half of the week.
MVFR cigs expected over much of the area thurs, and over the northwest
Wed...rain/low cigs likely.
Thu...gusty west-northwest winds, MVFR clouds.
Fri...MVFR poss northwest. Otherwise, VFR.
Sat...valley fog am, then VFR.