Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kctp 181114
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
714 am EDT Fri Oct 18 2019
the wind will subside later today as high pressure moves in.
Tonight may hold the first freeze for much of central PA.
Temperatures will then moderate to above normal to start next
week. The next chance of rain would be Monday night and
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
gusty wind continues but has subsided a bit. The surface
pressure gradient continues to slacken today to just about half
the magnitude of thurs. While the sustained speeds will still
be around 10-12kts, the gusts will become much lower this
afternoon. The clouds have begun to show some breaks, but expect
them to be stubborn. We do expect the clouds to break up
through the day. But, they may not be gone totally until sunset,
esp in the north. Maxes will still be cooler than normal, but we
should gain 5-6f over thurs.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Saturday/...
talk for the short term is focused around frost/freeze headlines
as the wind finally dies off and we clear out well. Sfc ridge
will be directly overhead Sat morning. Nearly perfect
radiational cooling conditions. Will be posting frost
advys/freeze watches or warnings for the rest of the area. We
are talking to our neighboring offices to gain their thoughts
and balance that into the other guidance before making the
calls. Much of the area still in the growing season looks like
it will be between 31f and 35f for mins tonight. Certainly frost
advy worthy, but perhaps also close enough for a freeze watch.
Saturday looks like lots of sunshine, a light southeast wind
developing, and temperatures rebounding to nearly normal.
Perfect for outdoor activities, esp Leaf peeping. Foliage seems
to be near peak here locally, but lots of leaves just got blown
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
clouds are likely to increase Saturday night into Sunday to the
north of potential tropical/subtropical cyclone forecast to
track through the deep south and then off the NC coast. The
main forecast issue will be if/how far north precipitation can
reach into central PA on Sunday. Have kept minimal pops over the
far S, esp the far sern couthies. The European model (ecmwf) is the wettest of
the guidance, with NAM and GFS barely brushing the S with very
The next frontal system is heading for US sometime around Mon
night-tues night. A slower moving system could bring soaking
rain to central and eastern parts of the area - very similar to
what we just went through with maybe less wind. The second half
of the week should be dry.
Aviation /11z Friday through Tuesday/...
moisture flowing off of the Great Lakes will produce lingering
stratocu across central PA this morning. Model soundings and
upstream obs indicate cigs will be borderline high IFR/low MVFR
over the higher elevation airfields, such as kbfd and kjst.
Expect progressively better conditions further east, with VFR
conditions a near certainty from kipt south through kmdt/klns.
High pressure will approach from the west later today, causing
winds to diminish and skies to clear. Model soundings and sref
probability charts indicate MVFR cigs could linger well into the
afternoon over the high terrain from kbfd south through kjst.
However, expect clearing even there by late in the day.
Sat...am valley fog.
Sun...no sig wx expected.
Mon...am valley fog possible.
Tue...rain/low cigs possible.
frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am EDT Saturday for paz028-045-
Freeze warning from 2 am to 8 am EDT Saturday for paz019-