Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kctp 170814
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
414 am EDT Thu Oct 17 2019
a deep storm over New England will provide cooler and blustery
conditions today into Friday. The upcoming weekend looks dry
with temperatures moderating to near normal or even slightly
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 06z a 977mb gale center was near Providence Rhode Island. The storm
is expected to deepen a bit more as it heads into southern New Hampshire
by mid day.
We are on the gusty back side of the low now and it will be a
chilly and windy day. Pressure rises aren't expected to be
especially impressive, but well aligned flow up through at least
500mb should aid in an efficient Transfer of strong winds down
to the surface. BUFKIT soundings show momentum Transfer winds
of 35-45kt, depending on the model used. Conditions will be
marginal, but with leaves still on the trees, we decided to
extend the Wind Advisory for all of our southern zones. It will
be windy everywhere, but these counties should see the best
chance of gusts in the neighborhood of 45-50 mph, especially
over higher elevations.
Showers will continue mainly over the western high terrain,
tending to dry out as they downslope into central and eastern
The wind will diminish as we move deep into the afternoon and
evening. It will stay breezy however with showers lingering
overnight over the western and northern areas. While it will
cool down into the 30s and 40s tonight in the wake of the
storm, overnight lows will average very near seasonal norms.
Short term /Friday/...
the storm will grow in size as it deepens on its trek through
New England. This will keep US in the cool and breezy cyclonic
flow on its back side into Friday when the gradient will begin
to relax. Showers over western areas will also begin to diminish
as heights aloft start to rebound.
Highs ranging from 50 north to 60 south will be some 5-10 deg
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
fair weather Saturday will last into early Sunday as high
pressure moves off to our south. This will allow temperatures
to moderate as we move into early next week.
An interesting looking low is forecast to skirt out along the
mid Atlantic coast and out to sea just south of the region
Sunday. The storm has its origins in an area of disturbed
weather down near the Bay of Campeche. The moisture from the
system could surge just far enough north to bring a small chance
of showers into southern areas later Sunday into Sunday night.
Monday looks dry as high pressure makes a brief return ahead of
the next frontal system that will be moving our way for
Aviation /08z Thursday through Monday/...
an intense storm system over New England will produce gusty west
to northwest winds across central PA today. BUFKIT soundings
indicate winds will pick up toward dawn and remain high through
the day, with frequent gusts over 30kts and occasional gusts
between 40-50kts across the south central part of the state.
Moisture flowing off of the Great Lakes will produce widespread
cloudiness across the region today, especially over the western
part of the state. Model soundings support high IFR/low MVFR
cigs across the high terrain of the alleghenies this morning,
then modest improvement by afternoon. Expect progressively
higher cigs east (downwind) of the alleghenies today.
Winds will begin to diminish tonight, as the storm lifts away
from the area.
Fri...am low cigs possible west mtns.
Sat...am valley fog.
Sun-Mon...patchy am valley fog possible.
Wind Advisory from 8 am this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening