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fxus61 kctp 202004 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
304 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019

high pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley today,
bringing mainly fair weather that will continue into Thursday.
Our next chance of rain will come later Thursday into Friday
associated with an approaching cold front. A new storm system
will move through the region Saturday and Saturday night,
followed by drier conditions with temperatures near to slightly
above normal to start the new work week.


Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
an upper low will slide east of the region today allowing a
drier northwest flow to develop over the County Warning Area.

Outside of the northern and western higher elevations where
clouds will remain stubborn within a northwest flow regime, early
clouds should generally give way to partly-mostly sunny skies.
Satellite imagery shows area of clearing moving slowly north.

With a brightening sky, afternoon highs should range from around
40 over the far north to near 50 in the lower Susquehanna

The overnight will be clear to partly cloudy in most areas, with
lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.


Short term /6 am Thursday morning through 6 PM Thursday/...
Thursday will be the transition day between high pressure passing
off to our southeast and a frontal system approaching from the west.
Clouds will be on the increase, but most of the region will
remain dry with the exception of the far northwest where a rain shower
may sneak in before the day is over.

Highs will vary from the mid 40s to lower 50s from north to S.


Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
there is good model consensus on a cold front crossing central
PA late thurs night into Friday. The front doesn't have a lot
of moisture to work with, and rainfall is expected to be a tenth
of an inch or less in most places.

The front will clear south of the region Friday night, taking
any precip and most of the clouds with it. However, a wave of
low pressure will develop over the Tennessee Valley Friday night
and push towards Pennsylvania on Saturday. This system will
bring increasing clouds and a chance for rain or a bit of a
wintry mix back into the area from southwest to northeast as
the day progresses on Saturday.

Most locations will see a period of plain rain later Saturday
into early Saturday night. However, chillier air will work back
into the area Saturday night, as a secondary area of low
pressure develops over eastern Virginia or the Delmarva Peninsula.
This could allow the precip to change back over to snow showers
for many locations before it tapers off on Sunday.

After a chilly day on Sunday, temperatures look like they will
rebound nicely heading into early next week.


Aviation /20z Wednesday through Monday/...
only a few remnants of lower cigs linger over the Laurel
mountains, specifically kjst and kaoo, while rest of taf sites
have moved into VFR ceilings as sunshine edges slowly northward
across central PA.

Winds from 300-320 degrees will increase to 8-12kt with gusts
15-20kts into the evening. Winds will decrease from west to
east tonight as high pressure slides east from the Ohio Valley.
Low cigs are mostly likely over the northern tier airspace
tonight into Thursday morning.


Thu...patchy am fog possible. low cigs west.

Sat...PM low cigs/rain likely. Chance of wintry mix Sat night.

Sun...low cigs/snow showers west.

Mon...residual low cigs west. VFR east.


Ctp watches/warnings/advisories...


$$ corte

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