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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne Wyoming
413 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Short term...(late this afternoon & tonight)
issued at 222 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

No major concerns in the next 12-24 hours across southeast Wyoming
and the western Nebraska Panhandle. Fire weather conditions remain
elevated across much of the area W/ widespread wind gusts 25 to 35
miles per hour and relative humidity values of 5 to 10 percent. Fuels remain non-critical to
the east of I-25, so red flag warnings were not necessary although
winds have been stronger over eastern areas. A dry cold front will
track across the region tonight, but impacts will be minimal other
than slightly cooler temperatures and a wind shift across the High
Plains.

Long term...(tuesday - monday)
issued at 245 am MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Hazards for the week will continue to focus on critical fire
weather conditions returning to a large portion of the high
terrain Wednesday and Thursday after the brief cool down Tuesday.
Precipitation chances will increase by late next weekend into
early next week with a potential impact window of accumulating snow
and rain.

The developing trough over Montana this morning will close off over
the northern plains by Tuesday with increased northwest flow aloft over
the region. An attendant cold front will brush the region late
tonight through Tuesday and temperatures will fall to near to
just below seasonable normals. However, shortwave ridging will
quickly move in Wednesday and 700 mb temperatures rebound upwards of
6-9c. Humidity values will fall to critical levels once again
Wednesday and Thursday when additional fire weather headlines will
likely be needed.

A sharper trough axis will pivot across Wyoming late Thursday that
could bring some low-end precipitation chances to the high
terrain areas due to upslope flow but amounts appear to be
limited. Colder temperatures likely by Friday with the passage of
the trough followed by brisk zonal flow Saturday ahead of
amplifying trough axis over WA/OR/ID. It will be this next
deepening trough that will bring even colder temperatures with
the chance of snow above 5000ft and rain in the lower elevations
of NE. However, will need to monitor ensemble trends and vertical
temperature profiles Sunday into early next week on this
potentially emerging impact window.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 410 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Wyoming tafs...VFR. Wind gusts to 28 knots until 02z, then gusts to
25 knots after 15z Tuesday

Nebraska tafs...VFR. Wind gusts to 25 knots at Sidney until 01z,
then gusts to 29 knots at all terminals after 15z Tuesday.

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 245 am MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Red flag warnings remain in effect until 7 PM MDT this evening for
most areas along/W of the Laramie range. Wind gusts 25-35 miles per hour will
continue to combine with relative humidity values as low as 5 percent through the
late afternoon. A fast-moving cold front will bring a wind shift &
some cooler temperatures to the High Plains tonight & Tuesday, but
this front will not have much of an impact for areas along/west of
the Laramie range. Near critical conditions are possible again for
Tuesday for western areas with relative humidity around 15 percent and wind gusts
20-25 miles per hour. Warmer & drier through Thursday with strong/gusty winds
possible on Thursday afternoon. Red flag headlines are possible on
Wed/Thu for some zones.

&&

Cys watches/warnings/advisories...
Wyoming...red flag warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for wyz303>306-308-
309.

NE...none.
&&

$$

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