Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kddc 180816 cca
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
212 am CST Mon Nov 18 2019
..updated long term...
Short term...(monday and tuesday)
issued at 1214 am CST Mon Nov 18 2019
Infrared satellite imagery shows plenty of cirrus spreading
southeast across Kansas in continued energetic northwest flow aloft.
Between the cirrus interfering with radiational cooling, and a
light westerly component in the surface winds overnight,
temperatures through sunrise Monday will be held well above
freezing and well above normal, well into the 30s.
Cirrus will clear early this morning, followed by full sun through
Monday afternoon. Energetic northwest flow aloft will be mixed
efficiently into the boundary layer through the midday and
afternoon hours, with northwest winds averaging 20-25 mph. Gusts of
30-35 mph will occur, especially north of Dodge City, and
especially during the early afternoon hours. Models continue to
show several degrees of warming at 850 mb over Sunday, and when
combined with downslope momentum and the ambient dry ground
regime, temperatures will soar through the 60s today. Went with or
slightly above the warmest guidance, with highs near 70 across
the southeast 1/2 of SW Kansas.
Temperatures will again be mild and above normal Monday night
through Tuesday morning, holding in the 30s.
Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected Tuesday afternoon
as a strong ridge axis crosses the plains. With another net gain
of +2c at 850 mb, most locales will warm easily into the lower
70s. Strong south winds will average 20-30 mph, and again followed
the strongest wind guidance available. Models show downslope
components will be minimal, capping temperatures near the lower
70s and preventing temperatures from reaching record levels. Full
sunshine early Tuesday, with increasing cirrus in the afternoon
behind the retreating ridge axis.
Long term...(wednesday through sunday)
issued at 212 am CST Mon Nov 18 2019
Remnants of the old baja cutoff low will arrive as a weakening,
highly progressive shortwave on Wednesday. Moisture and cloud
cover will increase upon this system's approach, with lower 50s
dewpoints expected across the southeast zones Wednesday afternoon. Lift
will be sufficient for scattered rain showers the second half of
Wednesday, but it must be emphasized that shower coverage will
strongly favor the eastern and southeast portions of SW Kansas. In
this highly progressive regime, the pops in the grids across the
western zones are likely overdone. Nonetheless, many locales east
and southeast of Dodge City will likely measure rainfall, and instability
will be sufficient for some embedded thunder. With meager cape and
strong wind fields, some convection may produce outflow winds.
With broad S/SW flow and warm/moisture advection, temperatures
Wednesday morning will be very mild for November, holding in the
40s at many locations. Despite the increase in clouds, mild
afternoon 60s are expected.
A strong cold front arrives behind this departing initial wave,
providing a November reality check with a much colder Thursday.
Daylight hours Thursday will be dry but much colder, with
temperatures reduced sharply to the 30s and 40s. 00z GFS is
showing its progressive bias with mex pops by late thursday; opted
to follow the slower 00z European model (ecmwf) and kept all grids through 6 PM
00z European model (ecmwf) tracks a closed low from Las Vegas at 6 PM Thursday, to
near Denver 6 am Friday, to a 552 dm low near Hays at 6 PM Friday.
This European model (ecmwf) track is too far north and too quick/progressive to
produce widespread significant precipitation in SW KS, especially in
November. Much heavier rainfall will occur south and east of SW Kansas.
Still, any moisture is better than nothing, and confident on a light
rain/snow mix Thursday night and Friday as dynamic lift ahead of the
cyclone arrives. With minor modifications, kept the nbm pops for
this time frame, with the most likely time for any small snow
accumulations Friday morning. An early quantitative precipitation forecast estimate from this system
is in the 0.10-0.30 inch range, with the highest amounts favoring
the southeast zones.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1109 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019
VFR will continue through this taf cycle. Broken cirrus will
continue through early Monday, followed by VFR/sky clear daylight
Monday. Light SW winds as of 05z will trend light northwest overnight.
After 18z Mon, strong northwest winds are expected at all airports,
averaging near 20 kts in a well-mixed boundary layer. Gusts to
near 30 kts are expected for several hours Monday afternoon.
Expect northwest winds to diminish rapidly after 23z/sunset Monday
Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 70 38 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
gck 68 35 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
eha 68 37 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
lbl 70 34 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
hys 69 36 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
p28 71 40 71 46 / 0 0 0 0