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fxus63 kddc 130523 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
1123 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

..updated aviation section...

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 343 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

A northwest flow pattern aloft continued across the central conus,
resulting in a very dry lower troposphere in the wake of the
latest Arctic airmass. The surface high was centered from
northwest Texas into Missouri and southerly winds strengthened
between the departing high and a developing leeside trough from
central Colorado into the Nebraska Panhandle. The low level
trajectories were emanating from the remnant Arctic high across
much of Kansas, thus despite the south winds, temperatures
struggled to reach mid 30s across much of central Kansas. The
exception to this was far western Kansas adjacent the Colorado
border where some mid and even upper 50s were found (even after a
morning low near zero!)

For tonight, the winds will continue out
of the south 10 to 15 mph for the most part, and this will keep
the boundary layer mixed enough to keep temperatures from falling
much below the upper 20s for lows early Wednesday morning. The
next system in the northwest flow pattern was moving into the
northern rockies this afternoon and will reach Nebraska midday
Wednesday. This will lead to another cold front passage late
morning to early afternoon across southwest Kansas. A corridor of
downslope-warmed air will develop just ahead of this front, and
some lower to mid 60s for afternoon highs will likely occur across
mainly far southwest Kansas. North winds behind the front will
likely be in the 20 to 30 mph range, particularly mid to late
afternoon. This will be yet another dry frontal passage for
southwest Kansas.

Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 343 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

This prolonged dry pattern is expected to continue across the
Western Plains through the long term period (early next week). An
upper level ridge will build in late week, following the late
Wednesday/early Thursday northwest flow system. Thursday will be
the coolest day of this long term period, although still certainly
much warmer than what we saw yesterday and today. The upper level
ridge will persist through late Friday/early Saturday when the
next trough will dig in across The Rockies. This storm system over
the weekend will most likely keep southwest Kansas dry, as the
track of the upper level wave from northwest to southeast down The
Rockies will keep much of this precipitation event to our west.
The entire system itself will be shearing out in a positive-tilted
manner as it crosses the Great Plains Sunday. For now, nearly the
entire ddc County Warning Area will have a dry forecast for this weekend storm
system, with the exception being right along the Colorado border
(15-20 pops). Otherwise, for the rest of US, it will most likely
be yet another dry frontal passage with downslope modification.
Temperatures, therefore, will not be impacted much.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1122 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

The next 24 hours are free of any restrictions with respect to
low ceilings or visibility. Light southerly winds will increase
to the 15 to 25 knot range late morning Wednesday after a cold
front sweeps across the area between 15 and 18 UTC. Winds will
quickly become light by sunset again, and any clouds in central
Kansas (hys area) could be as low as 3,000 ft, but not until after
00 UTC Thu.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 25 61 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
gck 23 62 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
eha 27 65 26 56 / 0 0 0 0
lbl 24 63 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
hys 24 55 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
p28 22 55 26 53 / 0 0 0 0


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...

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