Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 keax 112325
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
525 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019
issued at 106 PM CST Monday Nov 11 2019
Primary forecast focus is on bitter cold temperatures tonight into
1. Temperatures across the region in the 20s, now, will quickly drop
into the teens overnight, bottoming out in the lower teens to single
digits across the area.
2. Winds overnight will cause wind chills in the negative digits in
northern Missouri and the single digits to zero across the rest of
Missouri and Kansas.
3. Temperatures will not climb back above freezing until Wednesday,
Through 1 PM, snow has ended for most of northwestern and northern
Missouri,including the kc Metro, with a few heavier bands still
moving south-southeast. Stout north winds will persist through the
afternoon, and skies will gradually improve through the evening.
Overall, initial snow amounts have been tough to measure given
blowing snow, but anywhere from a half inch to an inch has occurred,
with locally higher amounts likely approaching two inches in central
and northern Missouri.
Overnight, the surface ridge will build in behind the the exiting
front, bringing clear skies and slightly calmer winds. Given
snowfall and clear skies, guidance is likely under-doing temperatures
overnight a few degrees. Regardless, lows will dip into the lower
teens to single digits; wind chills will make it feel like negative
single digits in northern Missouri to zero nearly everywhere else by
Tuesday morning. With the surface ridge slowly sliding east through
Tuesday, temperatures will remain below freezing through Wednesday
With weak 500mb ridging over the Midwest, temperatures will rebound,
slightly, with highs back in the 40s for Wednesday afternoon. A
short wave trough traversing the northern plains into Thursday may
bring a chance of rain across far northern Missouri Thursday
morning, but the vast majority of the region will likely remain dry.
Temperatures by the end of the week will warm back up to more
seasonable values; highs in the upper 40s and 50s Friday and 50s
into the weekend.
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 525 PM CST Monday Nov 11 2019
Cold high pressure will build into the area tonight. This will
tend to clear things out and lead to light winds by sunrise. Clear
skies and light winds are expected tomorrow.