Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 keax 140807 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
307 am CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

issued at 307 am CDT Monday Oct 14 2019

Message of the day: overall, nice Fall weather is expected this
work week with a chance for rain and potentially a storm on
Tuesday, mainly in southern MO. Widespread rain chances return
this weekend.

High pressure is currently centered over the region, allowing for
clear skies and temperatures to drop into the mid 30s to low 40s
this morning. Today, the high pressure will slide east and we will
transition into the warm sector of a developing surface low to our
west. This will shift winds to the south, increasing warm air
advection into the area and creating a light breeze in eastern
Kansas/western MO. The associated cold front will start moving through
the area tomorrow morning before sunrise. This cold front will be
fairly weak, with limited moisture and upper level support, so not
much, if any, precipitation is expected with its passage. The best
chance for showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two will be in
southern MO in the afternoon, potentially extending as far north
as the southeastern counties in our forecast area. No hazardous
weather is expected with this activity. The front should be
through our area by noon Tuesday, so highs Tuesday afternoon are
expected to be about 5-10 degrees cooler than today. We can also
expect a breezy day, with gusts between 20-25 mph across the area
along and behind the front.

High pressure and upper level ridging will fill in behind the front
across the Midwest Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures should
dip into the 30s again early Wednesday morning, so we could see some
frost, but right now everyone should stay above freezing. The
surface high will slowly move southeast through the day Wednesday,
resulting in mostly sunny skies, but only allowing temperatures to
reach the 50s. For the rest of the week, we will transition back
into the warm sector as another round of cyclogenesis occurs in the
eastern rockies. This will help temperatures rebound back into
the 60s and 70s for highs and 40s and 50s for lows. Friday, the
surface low and an upper level shortwave trough will start moving
through the Midwest. A cold front will move through Saturday,
providing the first chance for rain. It looks like the front will
then stall across southern MO until the end of the weekend, when
another surface low develops in association to a stronger upper
level closed low moving in from the Pacific northwest. This system
will bring the best chances for showers and storms over the next


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1142 PM CDT sun Oct 13 2019

VFR conds will prevail thru the taf pd with just a few high
clouds expected. Lgt and vrb winds overnight will increase out of
the south-southeast to around 10kts by late morning.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations