Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 keax 202319
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
619 PM CDT sun Oct 20 2019
issued at 209 PM CDT sun Oct 20 2019
Forecast focus is for potential of strong to severe thunderstorms
tonight, and gusty winds on Monday.
For the rest of today clouds and winds will increase ahead of
deepening upper level trough to the west. Winds will stay in the 15-
30 mph range through sunset.
Cold front will move into the western counties and kc Metro area
this evening through about midnight expect showers and thunderstorms
to develop west of area this afternoon and move into far western
counties between 7 and 8 PM and affecting the kc Metro area between
roughly 8 PM and midnight and then heading east overnight and will
be east of the area by the early morning hours. Some thunderstorms
could be strong to severe due to decent mid level lapse rates, deep
layer shear of 50-60 knots and even some helicity due to low level
winds from southeast. However due to limited moisture with dewpoints
in mid to upper 50s and pw's near an inch and cape below 1000 most
storms will stay below severe limits. Any storms that do become
strong to severe could contain hail up to the size of quarters and
half dollars and wind gusts of 50-60 mph. The best chance for severe
storms will be south of the I-70 corridor where slightly better
instability will exist.
Monday and Tuesday strong westerly and northwesterly flow develops
behind front as pressure gradient and cold air advection mixes wind
to the surface. Gusts of 25-35 mph likely with gusts to 40 mph
possible in some areas, but do not expect advisory level winds.
Otherwise just a tad bit cooler Monday and Tuesday to start the work
week with highs in upper 50s to near 60 and lows in 40s.
Another deepening trough to the west on Thursday will bring
increasing chances of rain as a frontal system moves across the
area. Its shaping up to be a cool rainy day on Thursday with highs
in the 40s. Finally, Friday looks chilly with lows near freezing.
Still some uncertainty with the evolution of this system on Thursday
and Friday due to large model differences, stay tuned...
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 617 PM CDT sun Oct 20 2019
The main threat for aviation tonight will be a line of showers and
thunderstorms that will push through the Kansas/MO border area between
3-6z. This line does look to be continuous from north to south so
there will not be many breaks as it pushes through. There is a
lower end chance of some stronger winds as it pushes through, but
went with 25kts for now. Winds will shift from southeast to west quickly as
the front passes and as we heat up tomorrow gust up to 30kts will
be possible until sunset.