Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 keax 192337
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
637 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019
issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019
Forecast focus is for a strong low pressure system on Sunday into
Monday bringing thunderstorms, cooler temperatures and gusty winds.
For the rest of today lingering showers across eastern counties will
end near sunset with clouds clearing tonight.
A surface high will briefly move across Missouri tonight and
early Sunday morning which will produce a good setup for fog
across much of the forecast area with wet ground, nearly calm
winds and clear skies. Many areas will see fog with the most
widespread area of fog in southeastern counties. The kc Metro will
see some fog also but not as widespread and more patchy. Dense
fog is definitely possible so later shifts may need to consider a
dense fog advisory for at least southeastern counties.
Our focus than shifts to a stronger system deepening to our west on
Sunday. Winds will increase Sunday afternoon from the south and
southeast at 15 to 25 mph with gusts around 30mph in some areas.
Cold front will move across the western counties and kc Metro area
Sunday evening through about midnight expect showers and storms to
develop just west of the Metro area and increase in coverage as they
move east into higher moisture source. Thunderstorms expected to be
non-severe due to limited moisture with pws around one inch near the
cold front and limited cape, there will be decent mid level lapse
rates and shear near 50-60 knots which could support a few strong
storms especially in areas south of Highway 50.
Monday and Tuesday fairly strong westerly and northwesterly flow
develops behind front as pressure gradient and cold air advection
mixes wind to the surface. Gusts of 30-40 mph likely, but do not
expect advisory level winds. Otherwise just a tad bit cooler
Monday and Tuesday to start the work week with highs in upper 50s
to near 60 and lows in 40s.
Finally, another deepening trough to the west on Thursday will bring
increasing chances of rain as a frontal system moves across the
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 632 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019
Fog overnight will be the main challenge for aviation forecasts
over Missouri and eastern Kansas. Clouds are going to clear out
over the area which will allow for cooling over the area down to
the dewpoint. The main uncertainty in the fog forecast is the
winds speeds. It is looking more likely that the calm and lighter
winds will be more over central Missouri, while a southerly wind
of 5-7kts picks up over the Kansas/MO border area. This may be just
enough wind to inhibit dense fog, but will still allow for some
MVFR visibilities towards sunrise. The possibility for dense fog
and IFR to LIFR visibilities at our taf sites is still there and
will need to be monitored as we go into the overnight hours to see
where these winds set up. If they remain calm then IFR to LIFR
visibilities will likely be added back to the tafs.