Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 keax 211048 
afdeax

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
548 am CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Discussion...
issued at 304 am CDT Monday Oct 21 2019

A powerful upper-level storm system is spinning across Nebraska and
South Dakota early this morning. The cold front associated with this
storm system is pushing into eastern Kansas as of 02z and should
be through the forecast area by mid to late this morning. Westerly
winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph are expected
through the day as the storm system slowly tracks to the east.
There may also be some showers move into northern Missouri as
moisture wraps around the surface low. While it looks like we'll
start the day clear, at least in the western sections of the
forecast area, clouds should spread southward through the area by
the afternoon. This will have an effect on temperatures and it
looks like much of the area will stay in the middle to upper 50s
as a result. The far southern portions of the forecast area may
climb to the lower 60s, depending on how quickly clouds spread
southward and/or if they reach that far south.

Quiet weather is expected Tuesday - Wednesday as the early week
storm system moves away from the area. By Wednesday evening, another
cold front will move into/through the area. There may be some rain
associated with the frontal passage during the evening and overnight
hours. But the better chances should come Thursday as ascent from
a fast moving shortwave trough moves over the area. This should
help lead to scattered to perhaps widespread rain in our southern
zones. By Thursday night, precipitation chances should have moved
away from the area with temperatures falling into the 20s and 30s
by Friday morning. For next weekend into early next week, it looks
like near normal temperatures can be expected. But that will
change for the middle to later part of next week when much colder
air will settle across the middle of the country.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 547 am CDT Monday Oct 21 2019

VFR conditions are likely through the forecast. Later this
morning, clouds with bases of 3500 to 5000 feet above ground level are expected
to move into the area. These will likely persist into the evening
hours before moving out of the area later in the evening or
overnight. Westerly winds of 15-20 kts with gusts of 25 to 30 kts
are expected through the day. Winds will decrease some around
sunset but remain in the 10 to 15 kt range.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations