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000 
FXUS63 KEAX 131124
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
524 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 256 AM CST WED NOV 13 2019

Broad surface high pressure continues to push east, with strong 
southwesterly low-level flow developing over much of the Central 
Plains. A 40 to 50 knot low-level jet axis stemming from the 
Texas Panhandle into the Great Lakes will promote breezy 
conditions today despite relatively shallow mixing expected 
through the morning and afternoon. Afternoon wind gusts will 
approach 30 to perhaps 35 knots across areas south of the I-70 
corridor. Strong southwesterly surface flow will bring 
temperatures back to above- freezing today, with afternoon highs 
rising into the low to mid 40s for most of the area, and the mid 
to upper 30s across northeast Missouri. 

A deepening open shortwave trough will advance overhead today, 
bringing a return of mid-level cloud cover as the morning 
progresses. A cold front will push through the area later tonight,
though models continue to keep any precip ahead of the boundary 
pinned north of the MO/IA border where deeper moisture fields and
better dynamics will be present. With that said, may see a brief 
sprinkle or flurry across far northern Missouri this evening. 
Scattered to broken low-level clouds will then fill in behind the
front tonight as temps quickly cool to rising dew points expected
this afternoon. 

Slightly cooler temps are expected Thursday in the wake of the 
frontal boundary, though going forward, overall temperature trends 
are much more favorable for fall. Beginning Friday, a prolonged 
period of warm advection will bring afternoon highs into the 50s and 
should persist during daytime heating each day well into next week. 
Widespread freezing temps overnight will begin to come to an end 
Saturday night across some areas, and continue to warm to above-
freezing values across remaining areas Sunday night into the early 
work week. Long-range models depict the next chance for widespread 
precip chances by the middle of next week, though there is a high 
degree of discrepancy in solutions at this point.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST WED NOV 13 2019

Strong southwesterly flow at 2kft near 45 knots will maintain the
potential for low-level wind shear through the mid-morning hours.
Surface winds will increase at that time, diminishing wind shear 
potential, while surface gusts approach 30 knots out of the 
southwest through the afternoon hours. A cold front will turn 
winds northwesterly Wednesday evening while low-level stratus 
builds into the region. Could see MVFR ceilings this evening
behind the front into the overnight before conditions improve 
early Thursday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

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