Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 keax 132320 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
520 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

Short term...(today through Thursday night)
issued at 205 PM CST Wednesday Nov 13 2019

So far today, breezy southwesterly winds had been present across
much of the area due to a strong 850 mb jet extending from central
Texas into Michigan. This jet core will continue to slide
eastwards and weaken throughout the remainder of the day,
resulting in waning surface winds through the evening hours. Some cloud
cover is also present across the area as a mid-level trough
continues to traverse the area. Overall, a seasonally cool
afternoon is in store as afternoon highs peak in the mid to upper
30s across northern Missouri and low to mid 40s across the
remainder of the area.

Although most of the area is expected to remain dry today, i've
kept a low-end chance for a brief period of flurries or sprinkles
near the Missouri/Iowa this evening ahead of an approaching cold
front, with no impacts expected. The cold front will then progress
from northwest to southeast across the area this evening and
tonight, bringing a broken deck of low-level stratus clouds behind
it given a slight increase in low-level moisture tonight.
Overnight lows will be more mild compared to last night, generally
bottoming out in the low to mid 20s. Clearing skies and slightly
cooler temperatures are in store for Thursday behind the front.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 205 PM CST Wednesday Nov 13 2019

An upper level ridge will overspread the central Continental U.S. For Friday
into the weekend, bringing a period of decent, Fall-like weather
to the region. Highs in the upper 40s over northern Missouri to
mid 50s over central/west-central Missouri can be expected through

A cold front will move through the area again on Sunday, but given
the dry airmass that is expected at the time, have kept the pops
low with only a slight chance for some flurries over far northern
Missouri on Sunday.

The warming trend will continue into the middle of next week with
highs in the 50s and lows generally above freezing for Monday into
Wednesday under northwest flow aloft. Longer range model guidance
suggests our next chance for more scattered to widespread
precipitation arriving the middle of next week on Wednesday, but a
wide spread in model guidance still leaves a modest amount of


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 520 PM CST Wednesday Nov 13 2019

VFR conditions are likely through the forecast. Low VFR clouds
over northwestern MO and northern Kansas will spread southward this
evening. Ceilings in this area of clouds should generally be in
the 3000 to 4000 ft range. But there may be some pockets of MVFR
ceilings that migrate through the area. Think the prevailing
conditions will be VFR so have left mention of lower clouds out.
Regardless, drier air moving into the region will help clear
things out by tomorrow afternoon. Winds will trend to the north
overnight but remain relatively light.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations