Scientific Forecaster Discussion

000 
FXUS63 KEAX 152331
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
531 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 330 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2019

Primary forecast focus is the ongoing winter storm.

Key Messages...

1. Bands of moderate snowfall will continue to move across portions 
of the region through Sunset. Additional 1 to 2 inches of snow is 
possible across the area through the evening hours. 

2. Overnight, a lull in snow and precipitation is expected across 
much of the region. Light freezing drizzle may occur off and on 
across portions of central into southwestern Missouri and 
southeastern Kansas. Freezing drizzle may result in ice 
accumulations of a few hundredths of an inch of ice.

3. Monday morning, snow chances will increase as the second round of 
snow moves in from the west and southwest across eastern Kansas and 
into central Missouri. Additional 2 to 3 inches of snow is possible 
across the region.

4. Road conditions will remain hazardous through the evening and 
overnight hours and through Monday. Bursts of moderate snowfall will 
continue to cause reduced visibility. If you must travel, be sure 
your cell phone is charged, take a flashlight, snacks, a blanket and 
extra bottles of water.

Technical Discussion...

Moderate to heavy snowfall continues across most of the KC metro and 
locations to the east. Large scale ascent remains spread across the 
lower Missouri Valley, associated with the weak 500mb short wave 
crossing NE/IA. Precipitation has been steady for a wide swath of 
eastern Kansas into central and eastern Missouri. To the south, into 
the Lakes region up on to the Ozark plateau, drier air through the 
mid and lower levels and a stronger warm nose has limited precip 
rates and therefore, greater snow amounts haven't materialized with 
sleet and freezing drizzle being the primary precipitation types. 
snow amounts have ranged from 1 to 5 inches, generally across the 
region. This first round of snowfall is expected to continue through 
6 to 7 PM CDT. 

Tonight, expect a lull in activity behind this system, with periods 
of flurries and a chance of freezing drizzle, late, around midnight 
and through the early Monday morning hours, across southwestern 
Missouri into central Missouri. A few hundredths of an inch of ice 
remains possible and could exacerbate already hazardous road 
conditions in the Lakes Region and central Missouri. 

Through Sunrise, Monday, the next round of snow will move into the 
region from the west and southwest as the next short wave trough 
churns in across the southern Plains. Once again, an area of broad 
ascent will be the focus for banding snowfall across portions of 
southeastern Kansas into western and central Missouri. Additional 
snowfall between 1 to 3 inches is possible with this system. 
Short range guidance is in good agreement with snow setting up 
through mid-morning, and continuing through the afternoon before 
exiting east through sunset. 

Beyond tomorrow, quiet and calm weather is expected through the 
remainder of the week into next weekend. Temperatures will be back
in the 40s for highs Thursday and Friday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2019

The moderate snow and IFR/LIFR visibilities in snow are starting
to come to an end as the first of two winter systems pushes
eastward into central Missouri. Ceilings are varying all over the
area from MVFR to VFR so there is some uncertainty on what deck
forms up as the snow moves out. There appears to be a push of
colder air after the snow that will reform a deck in the lower 
levels and create a solid MVFR ceilings, so the TAFs lean in that
direction along and south of KMCI. Snow is expected to end by 
4-5Z with just a MVFR ceilings through tomorrow morning. The next 
winter system will push into the region late tomorrow morning, but
the higher snowfall rates and IFR visibility look to stay along 
and south of the Missouri River. This will spare KMCI from the 
lower visibilities, but all airfields south of there will likely 
see IFR to LIFR visibility from 16-20Z before snow moves out by 21
to 23Z. VFR conditions can be expected tomorrow evening after 
this period. 

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ025-102.

MO...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Monday night for 
     MOZ030>033-038>040-044>046-054.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ028-029-037-
     043-053.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ001>006-
     011>013-020-021.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Monday night for 
     MOZ007-008-014>017-022>025.

&&
National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations