Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 keax 141855
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
155 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019
issued at 154 PM CDT Monday Oct 14 2019
Primary forecast focus is on low rain chances for portions of
central and southern Missouri late tonight into Tuesday.
1. A cold front will sweep into the region, from the northwest,
early Tuesday morning, with rain chances developing across the
Ozarks into north central and eastern Missouri through sunrise into
2. Pleasant fall like temperatures will persist through the week.
Morning lows, Wednesday, will allow for some frost chances in
Warm today, with highs in the 70s, ahead of an approaching cold
front. This boundary is associated with a decent 500mb trough
churning into the Dakotas through tonight. Ahead of the front,
return flow will result in dew points in the mid 50s pooling
across the Ozark Plateau and as north as the Osage river basin. In
response, sufficient isentropic ascent will result in rain
chances gradually increasing early Tuesday morning across the
areas noted above; the majority of west central and northwestern
Missouri and eastern Kansas will remain dry.
Overall, pleasant temperatures will prevail through the period,
with highs in the 60s and 70s each day. Some frost cannot be
ruled out early in the morning, Wednesday, in far northwest
Missouri, as temps will dip into the lower 30s, but temperatures
should remain above freezing.
After prolonged, slow evolving, ridging over the central U.S., A
trough will move into the region, with an associated cold front
bringing a chance for rain, Saturday through Sunday.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1231 PM CDT Monday Oct 14 2019
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening. Ahead
of a frontal boundary, expect MVFR ceilings to gradually build
northward, early Tuesday morning, impacting most near and south
of the Missouri River. Low level wind shear will be a concern
overnight, with strong south and southwest winds ahead of the
front through the lower layers of the atmosphere. The front will
move in from the northwest to southeast, clearing skies and
introducing stronger north and northwest winds through the end of